Could NC see a white Christmas this year? Weather experts weigh in on our snow chances
Many of us in North Carolina are dreaming about it, a white Christmas.
And this year, chances are, our dreams will stay dreams.
But at this point, no one can say with certainty whether we’ll get snow on Christmas. After all, some parts of the state have already seen a few flurries, and some forecasters are saying Raleigh has a chance of snow on Dec. 22, just a few days shy of Christmas.
The News & Observer consulted the National Weather Service and the tried-and-true Farmers’ Almanac to explain the state’s chances for snow on Christmas (and Hanukkah, which begins Wednesday, Dec. 25) this year.
What the Farmers’ Almanac says about snow on Christmas in NC
Based on the Farmers’ Almanac’s prediction, we’re out of luck.
The Southeast, which includes North Carolina, is expected to get:
- Scattered showers Dec. 20-23.
- More showers Dec. 24-27.
- Blustery, cold winds fade under a mix of clouds and sun Dec. 28-31.
What the National Weather Service says about an NC white Christmas
The National Weather Service’s forecasts don’t extend weeks in advance, so it’s too soon to say with confidence whether North Carolina will get a white Christmas, Gail Hartfield, a meteorologist with the NWS Forecast Office in Raleigh, told The News & Observer in a call on Friday, Dec. 13.
As we get closer to Christmas, the meteorologists will have more confidence in their weather forecasts.
Historical data can provide insight on how often North Carolina gets a white Christmas. Unfortunately for those who are pro snow, the numbers are not promising.
“Climatologically speaking, and that means over the course of a long period of time, how many times have we seen snow, it is pretty rare here in the state,” Hartfield said — meaning, only a handful of incidents in recent decades.
According to the N.C. State Climate Office, it snowed in the mountains on Christmas Day in 2002, and in 2010, a powerful winter storm brought snow across the state, including into the Triangle, on Dec. 25. Then a decade later, in 2020, snow fell in Western North Carolina starting Christmas Eve and into Christmas Day.
“You see a lot of people posting on social media. They’ll post one computer model that has snow. We as meteorologists use literally hundreds of different models in our forecasting, so don’t believe the hype machine,” Hartfield said. “Just make sure you get a trusted source for your forecast information.”
Conditions needed for snow
Hartfield said the recipe for a white Christmas calls for:
- Deep, moist air from different levels of the atmosphere, which typically includes a flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic
- Arctic air
- Lift, which is energy in the atmosphere that can produce precipitation out of the atmosphere into the cold air
Which parts of NC have a better chance of getting a white Christmas?
The Triad and northern and western parts of the state, particularly the mountains, have a better chance of getting a white Christmas compared to the Triangle, Hartfield said.
This story was originally published December 18, 2024 at 7:00 AM.
