Arctic blast could bring wintry mix to the Triangle this weekend. Here’s when & where
Don’t put away those ugly sweaters yet; forecasters say this January is going to be a cold one in central North Carolina and wintry precipitation could fall as soon as this weekend.
A hazardous weather outlook for parts of the Triangle
The National Weather Service said on Thursday, Jan. 2, that a cold front will bring a blast of Arctic air to the state beginning Friday afternoon and evening, along with 5- to 10-mph winds and gusts up to 24 mph.
Accuweather forecasters sent out an email Thursday warning of a moisture-rich storm system moving across the country from the west that could complicate things, creating the possibility for ice and snow in the North Carolina mountains and along the Virginia border nearly to the coast.
▪ After a high of around 52 degrees on Friday, the temperature will drop to 25 degrees Friday night, and with winds continuing, forecasters say it will feel like 18 degrees.
▪ Saturday will be breezy and cold, with a high in Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill around 39 degrees and a low Saturday night around 24 degrees, the Weather Service says.
▪ Sunday will be mostly sunny and slightly warmer, with highs in the mid-40s in the central part of the state.
▪ Rain is forecast for Sunday night as a storm system traveling across the country arrives in the East. In Raleigh, the Weather Service says it will be too warm for anything to freeze.
▪ But in Chapel Hill, to the west, and in Durham and areas north toward the Virginia border, forecasters have issued a hazardous weather outlook, with wintry precipitation possible Sunday night into early Monday morning before temperatures begin to rise toward the 40s. Wintry precipitation can take the form of freezing rain, sleet, ice or snow.
How cold will it be in January?
The National Weather Service doesn’t make specific local forecasts more than seven days out because they’re unreliable. But its Climate Prediction Center forecasts trends up to several months ahead.
As of Thursday, the forecast for Jan. 9-15 shows a 90% chance of below-average temperatures across North Carolina, meaning highs mostly in the upper 30s to mid-40s through the period.
During the same window, the forecast says about half the state is likely to have near-normal amounts of precipitation, and the other half is leaning toward having below-normal precipitation.
The dividing line between the two runs southwest to northeast through the center of North Carolina, and Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill are just on the dry side of the split.
From Jan. 11-24, the Climate Prediction Center says, North Carolina still has a 60% to 70% chance of below-average temperatures and the eastern half of the state has at least a 50% chance of above-average precipitation.
Will Raleigh get snow in January?
Amateur weather blogger and forecast aggregator Mike Boylan noted on his Facebook page Thursday that some international computer models see the possibility of snow in North Carolina between Jan. 9 and Jan. 11.
The most promising is a European model showing that in that period:
- Some areas in the southern half of North Carolina have up to a 70% chance of getting at least a tenth of an inch of snow.
- The northern half of the state, including Raleigh and the Triangle, have at least a 70% chance of a tenth of an inch of snow in that period.
It would be a challenge to build a snowman at that depth, but it would break the snow drought we’ve been in since Jan. 29, 2022.
- The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which is not afraid to make long-term forecasts, said last fall that the best chance for snow anywhere in the region will be late January, early February and late February.
- Its competition, The Farmers Almanac, doesn’t mention the possibility of snow until February 8-11, when it says North Carolina could see scattered wet snow or rain showers.
- On President’s Day weekend, Feb. 16-19, the Farmers Almanac says North Carolina should look for rain, but it could be mixed with sleet and wet snow.
This story was originally published January 3, 2025 at 5:00 AM.
