King tides & new storm tracking toward NC mean flooding, rain. Latest forecast
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- Coastal low will approach North Carolina this weekend, bringing rain and strong winds.
- Forecasters warn 2–4 inches of rain on Outer Banks this weekend, but total amounts depend on the storm’s track.
- Coastal flood advisories and watches are in effect this week.
A coastal low system expected to develop in coming days could bring rain, winds and dangerous coastal conditions to North Carolina.
Forecasters are uncertain about the intensity of specific impacts as of Thursday, Oct. 9 because the system is a few days out from reaching North Carolina.
The storm’s exact track, whether it comes further inland or stays further offshore, is unknown and will help determine rainfall totals, according to the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Morehead City.
If it stays farther offshore, rainfall amounts will be lower. If the system moves closer inland, more inland areas will get more rain.
Areas in central North Carolina east of and along the I-95 corridor could get 1-2 inches of rain, the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Raleigh told The News & Observer. West of I-95 in central North Carolina, including the Raleigh area, between 0.25 inches and 0.5 inches of rain is more likely.
Along the coast, strong winds up to 40 mph with higher gusts on Saturday, Oct. 11 and Sunday, Oct. 12 are possible, David Glenn, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Morehead City, told The News & Observer on Wednesday, Oct. 8.
The Outer Banks, including Dare County, Hatteras Island and Ocracoke Island, could get 2-4 inches of rain from Friday night, Oct. 10, through Sunday, Glenn said Wednesday.
Between 1 inch and 2 inches of rain is possible throughout the weekend in southeast North Carolina, the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Wilmington said in a briefing Thursday morning. The “worst case” scenario could bring up to 6 inches, according to the briefing.
Coastal flood advisories, watch already in place
The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Newport/Morehead City is issuing warnings of hazardous weather for the North Carolina coast.
- Coastal flood advisories for coastal Pender County, inland New Hanover County and eastern Currituck County are in effect through about mid-day Thursday, Oct. 9. Up to 1 foot of inundation above ground level is possible along low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. A high rip current risk is in effect.
- Coastal flood advisories are in effect until 8 a.m. Monday, Oct. 13 for the following places: areas along Bogue Banks beaches, Bogue Sound, the Newport and White Oak rivers and adjacent tidal creeks; coastal Onslow County; east Carteret County; the northern Outer Banks; areas around Pamlico Sound, the Trent, Bay and lower Neuse Rivers and adjacent tidal creeks; and areas along the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers and adjacent tidal creeks. Up to 1-2 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways.
- For Hatteras and Ocracoke islands, a coastal flood advisory is in effect through 5 p.m. Saturday, and a coastal flood watch is in effect Saturday afternoon through Monday morning. Up to 3 feet of inundation above ground level is possible during the coastal flood advisory, and up to 4 feet of inundation above ground level is possible during the coastal flood watch.
What is a king tide?
A king tide, which refers to higher-than-normal astronomical tides, is affecting the coast through at least Sunday. In addition to that, strong northeasterly winds are expected in coming days. Together, these conditions are expected to create coastal flooding and large surf.
Beachgoers should also be wary of moderate to high risks of rip currents this week and into the weekend, Glenn said.
Impacts for central NC and the Triangle
If the center of the storm hugs the coast or touches the Outer Banks, heavier rain and gustier winds would affect areas further inland, Laura Helock, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Raleigh, told The N&O on Wednesday. But if the center of the system remains farther offshore, the impacts would be less severe.
Rainfall and winds will be more significant toward the eastern parts of the state.
Flooding is unlikely in central North Carolina, but possible in areas that receive locally higher amounts of precipitation, Helock said Wednesday.
Wind gusts in areas along the I-95 corridor over the weekend could reach 25-35 mph, the Raleigh forecast office said Thursday.
This story was originally published October 8, 2025 at 1:23 PM.
