Here’s how many hurricanes NC may see in 2026, early forecasts show
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Hurricane Season starts on June 1 and goes until Nov. 1
- Early forecasts for the hurricane show normal or below normal seasons.
- El Niño could have an impact on the hurricane season.
While still early, new forecasts are pointing to an average or below-average hurricane season this year of North Carolina’s coast.
North Carolina State University researchers released its annual forecast predicting a season “that will be in line with recent average” for the second year in a row. Anywhere from 12 to 15 named storms could form in the Atlantic basin, according to Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences at NC State.
“Of the predicted 12 to 15 named storms, six to nine may grow strong enough to become hurricanes (the recent average is seven), with the possibility of two to three storms becoming major hurricanes (the recent average is four),” according to the NC State forecast, which was released on Wednesday, April 22.
Colorado State University researchers released their annual hurricane season in early April, predicting a below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, with 13 named storms and six hurricanes.
Since 2021, CSU researchers have calculated the impacts of cyclones for each state and county along the East Coast and predict how likely a storm is to develop within 50 miles.
There have been 159 named storms that meets that criteria for the state between 1880 and 2020, according to the CSU data.
That data shows that in 2026 North Carolina has:
- A 54% chance of being affected by a named storm
- A 28% chance of being affected by a hurricane
- A 5% chance of being affected by a major hurricane
When does hurricane season start?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
What’s the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in 2026?
The Colorado State University researchers outlined the probability of major hurricanes making landfall:
- 32% for the entire US coastline (43% average between 1880-2020)
- 15% for the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, (21% average between 1880-2020)
- 20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Texas (27% average between 1880-2020).
- 35% for the Caribbean (47% average from 1880 to 2020)
How will El Niño affect hurricane season?
After two La Niña winters, forecasts are strongly suggesting an El Niño, a climate pattern that brings warmer-than-average temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, to form this year.
That could dampen the effects of this year’s hurricane season, but an El Niño could bring a wetter fall and winter, said Barrett Smith, senior service hydrologist for the National Weather Service’s Raleigh office.
When will the first hurricane hit?
The first named storm usually appears in mid-to-late June with the first hurricane usually forming in mid-August, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The first major hurricane usually forms in late August or early September.
Tropical storm vs hurricane
These storms are categorized based on wind speed, which helps predict potential property damage, The News & Observer previously reported. Danger from other hazards like flooding, storm surges and tornadoes are not factored into the storm’s categorization.
According to the National Hurricane Center, storms are classified as:
- Tropical Depression: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 38 mph or less.
- Tropical Storm: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph.
- Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher. In the western North Pacific, hurricanes are called typhoons; similar storms in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific Ocean are called cyclones.
- Major Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or higher, corresponding to a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Inspired by a story from The State in South Carolina. Portions of this story were previously published in The News & Observer.
This story was originally published April 27, 2026 at 10:15 AM.
