Farmer’s Almanac predicts a rainy Thanksgiving. Do climate scientists agree?
The Farmer’s Almanac predicts Thanksgiving rain in the Southeast.
Do climate scientists agree?
The News & Observer talked with Corey Davis, assistant state climatologist at the State Climate Office of North Carolina, to hear from climate experts about the accuracy of Farmer’s Almanacs, along with weather sources we can use.
Here’s what the experts say we should know about Farmer’s Almanac predictions and the weather we can expect:
Thanksgiving weather predictions
• Expect a warm Thanksgiving. The Climate Forecast System version 2 is giving climate scientists an idea of what week-to-week conditions might look like in November, Davis said.
“Its forecast puts our temperatures a few degrees above normal — in the Raleigh area, that would be in the low to mid 60s — with little precipitation. That’s actually very similar to our weather over the past week or two.”
This is probably the most reasonable indication of what Thanksgiving weather might look and feel like, he said.
• If the Farmer’s Almanac predicts rain, you should check other sources to feel confident in the forecast, Davis said. Almanacs have been around since the days of Benjamin Franklin, and they’ve become a longstanding tradition for many, he said.
“But that tradition is based on science that’s pretty iffy at best,” he said. “Even to this day, the ‘secret formula’ used by the Farmer’s Almanac apparently considers things like sunspots and the positions of planets, which we now know have essentially no impact on our weather.”
The Climate Office previously studied Farmer’s Almanac’s forecasts over a three-year period, finding hit-or-miss forecasts.
“They’re correct only about half of the time. That sounds fairly impressive, but remember that if you’re only trying to predict whether our weather will be warm or cool, or wet or dry, then you’d expect the same level of accuracy by flipping a coin,” he said.
• Use trusted forecasts instead: Keep up with Raleigh’s National Weather Service and the N.C. State Climate Office to see what Thanksgiving’s weather will be.
You can follow NWS Raleigh (weather.gov/rah) and N.C. State Climate Office (climate.ncsu.edu). If you’re traveling for the holiday, you can find the NWS office closest to your destination and keep up with their updates on platforms like Twitter and Facebook.
• Watch out for wildfires: If November is dry this year (like how we saw our driest conditions emerge last November and December), we might have wildfire concerns especially in the western part of the state later this fall, Davis said.
We saw a large, memorable wildfire on Pilot Mountain after Thanksgiving weekend last year because of the dry weather. This October has been dry since Hurricane Ian moved through the region.
Winter weather predictions
• Expect a warmer, drier winter: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter outlook favors warmer and drier conditions for the Southeast, including most of North Carolina, Davis said.
Last winter was the state’s 10th-warmest and 45th-driest on record, dating back to 1895.
• But prepare for some cool spots: Even though last winter started out warm, we had cooler and even snowy wintry weather dominate the month of January.
“The rain and snow last January essentially snuffed out our drought, so we’ll hold out some hope that this winter brings more of the same,” Davis said. “And for all the snow lovers, including myself, I’m rooting for the almanacs to be right about the snow on the way — even if the science and the prevailing patterns at the moment generally suggest otherwise.”
This story was originally published October 30, 2022 at 8:00 AM.
