As transportation changes, so will we

Although we might not think about it, transportation is key to two goals of our society: individual freedom, and economic development. Transportation gives each of us freedom to consider more options for living, working, and enjoying ourselves.

For example, in the early 20th century most people — including my grandparents — had to live very close to where they worked, because the range of horse travel and then early autos was limited. Rarely did my grandparents even consider traveling more than 10 or 20 miles.

Over the sweep of history, a strong link can be seen between advancements in transportation and improvements in the economy. Faster, more reliable, versatile, and less expensive (per mile traveled) methods of moving both people and products are keys to an expanding economy and higher standard of living. Better transportation creates more opportunities for businesses to sell and individuals to work.

While transportation is important to every person and place in North Carolina, the key issues are not the same. In the big urban areas, the top concerns are congestion, high land costs for new road projects, and the roles of mass transit as well as new transit modes like rides-on-demand and bikes and scooters

In the suburbs and small towns economically linked to nearby big urban centers, the greatest need is fast transit links from homes to jobs in the cities. These suburb-to-city commuters can easily spend two to three hours each working day in travel, first to work in the morning and then to home at night.

Then there are the scores of rural counties in our state trying to remake their economies. Many of these have actually lost population in recent years and have prospects of continuing to lose residents in the decades ahead.

For these localities, improved transportation is a lifeline to a better economic future. More and better roads that improve access to locations in the counties increase the likelihood that both businesses and households will choose those counties as home.

An easy conclusion is that we need more transportation investment in almost all of our counties. But some futurists maintain the kinds of transportation we think we need now will not be the kinds of transportation we’ll actually want in the future. The reason is there’s a high chance technology will change both the type and amount of transportation we’ll use in the future.

Consider these potential “game changing” technologies affecting transportation: autonomous vehicles, expanded ride-sharing, virtualization, drone delivery, remote service (such as medical care) delivery, and universal low-cost high-speed internet. Some futurists believe these technologies could reduce vehicle ownership, reduce commuting, increase remote working, improve the availability of services in rural counties, and reverse the trend toward urbanization in the state.

Even if these technologies develop, they are likely years – if not decades – away. In the meantime, the issues for various parts of our state — congestion, connection, and economic development — will remain the key issues in transportation.

There is also the issue of paying for transportation improvements. Interestingly, on this issue futurists are united. As we move away from gasoline-powered vehicles, the gas tax will not be adequate. Some alternative way of financing transportation will have to be found, such as mileage fees, tolls, or funding from general state tax revenues like the income or sales tax.

However, the longer run look of transportation is less certain. This future depends on how fast the game-changing technologies evolve, and how our living, working, and commuting patterns will change.

Although some think it is a cliché, I do believe we live in interesting and exciting times, and this includes transportation. As new technologies become available, and as our lives change as a result, all of us will collectively determine our transportation needs through our choices.

Michael L. Walden is a William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor at North Carolina State University. This commentary is based on his remarks earlier this month to the North Carolina Department of Transportation’s 2019 Transportation Summit in Raleigh..