As the 2020 vote approaches, remember the impact of the 2010 election

The new year will find Americans facing the most consequential election in a generation — a choice not only about the nation’s policies, but its character.

But before turning to the 2020 vote, it’s worth looking back at the vote that shaped the last decade for the nation and especially North Carolina — the the midterm election of 2010.

It was the voters’ first return to the polls after the election of the first black president. The coalition that elected Barack Obama perhaps thought the liberal battle was won with his election, but a conservative backlash was coming that gave Republicans control of the House and big gains in the states.

The vote reflected economic anxiety over fallout from the financial crisis of 2008 more than a deep shift in ideology. It was not an endorsement of the Republican agenda. An analysis of the 2010 vote by the Pew Research Center noted: “By 53% to 41%, more voters expressed an unfavorable opinion than a favorable opinion of the GOP. Indeed, views of the Republican Party are no more positive than those of the Democratic Party, which was roundly defeated.”

Nonetheless, Republican lawmakers took the vote as a mandate to obstruct Obama with concerns that proved unfounded or insincere. Nine years later, the Affordable Care Act they demonized is popular and the Tea Party zealots have gone silent as President Trump’s tax cuts have ballooned the federal deficit to record levels.

In North Carolina, the effect of the 2010 vote was profound. Republicans took control of both chambers of the General Assembly for the first time in more than a century. They quickly took their traditionally moderate state on a radical rightward turn.

They started by locking in the Republicans’ legislative majority. In 2011, Republicans passed what are generally considered the most gerrymandered redistricting maps in the nation. The maps helped elect a veto-proof Republican legislative majority in 2012. The election of Republican Pat McCrory as governor sealed GOP control.

Republican actions since the 2010 vote have divided the state and drawn embarrassing national attention: a constitutional amendment to ban same-sex marriage (the last such amendment in the nation and since ruled unconstitutional); the HB2 law targeting transgender people battered the state’s image and its economy; the elimination of a progressive income tax and passing of tax cuts favoring big corporations and the wealthy that cost the state $3.5 billion annually in lost revenue; years of inadequate school funding that triggered massive protest marches by teachers; the mismanagement of the UNC Board of Governors by members appointed solely for their political loyalty; the cruel refusal to expand Medicaid that has left hundreds of thousands of North Carolinians without medical insurance; and a run of court cases in which the legislature’s laws have been found to be unconstitutional.

After the 2010 vote, the claim that “elections have consequences” rings powerfully true. But on the eve of 2020 there are signs of moderation and corrections. HB2 was undone. The courts have thrown out the gerrymandered maps. Another judge has ruled that a majority based on gerrymandering lacks the legitimacy to amend the state Constitution. The requirement for voters to present a photo ID has been suspended. Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is pushing a big raise for teachers. The Board of Governors’ incompetence has made it ripe for reform. And after 2020 there may be enough votes to expand Medicaid.

But bringing North Carolina back to the center won’t happen on its own. People who want change will will need to vote in 2020, especially those who thought it was safe to stay home in 2010.