The biggest enemy to NC’s reopening success

Three months ago, California was North Carolina today. Its governor, Gavin Newsom, had been smart and conservative in responding to COVID-19, promptly imposing restrictions and slowly reopening businesses. In turn, California’s virus numbers were promising compared to neighboring states. The worst, some thought, was in the past.

It wasn’t. When Newsom more aggressively reopened the economy - in part as a response to political and business pressure - California’s cases spiked. The governor was forced to re-issue restrictions, and the state - once the model for COVID response - faced criticism and recriminations for what went wrong.

North Carolina, which will move into “Phase 2.5” of reopening on Friday, has already learned in some ways from California’s trials. While N.C. Gov. Roy Cooper announced Tuesday that gyms, bowling alleys, museums and aquariums across the state can reopen, he is allowing that at limited capacity, unlike California and other states that more fully flung open the doors. Cooper’s order also does not include bars - the cause of at least some reopening woes in California and other states.

But California is very much a cautionary tale for North Carolina and other states that are seeing very real improvement in COVID metrics. Health experts and other officials say that California’s post-reopening COVID spike is an example of how reopening breeds complacency - or, as one official called it, “irrational exuberance.”

Simply put, too many Californians saw the reopening as a step toward normalcy, then acted like they were all the way there. They expanded social activities. They gathered in bigger crowds. They packed in too closely at restaurants, bars and breweries. “How this disease spreads is all about the margins,” physician and California state senator Richard Pan told the New York Times in July. “All it takes is, like, 5 percent more people doing more high-risk behavior to change its direction.”

That same dynamic has helped upend reopenings in other states, and it could be a threat here. Certainly, North Carolina has the benefit of this week’s Phase 2.5 happening in a post-mask debate environment. It’s widely (if sometimes grudgingly) accepted now that facial coverings help contain the spread of COVID. More people are wearing them. More businesses are making it a requirement. It’s why COVID metrics have stabilized and improved in North Carolina and across the country.

It’s also why Cooper and other N.C. officials stressed this week that mask wearing and social distancing will continue to be critical to containing the virus. When asked Tuesday how reopening would affect about improving positivity numbers, Mecklenburg health director Gibbie Harris told county commissioners: “A lot of that depends on us.”

Already, we’ve seen glimpses of some less-than-optimal recent behavior in North Carolina, including a viral video showing a woman drinking directly from an alcohol tap and being egged on by the crowd at a Charlotte self-pour taproom last weekend. The good news: The taproom, Hoppin’, banned the woman in the viral video and closed its doors to clean and sanitize its equipment.

That diligence, from everyone, needs to continue. As with masks, business owners will need to police bad behavior at their establishments. As with previous loosening of restrictions, local and state officials will need to monitor businesses and discipline those that flout the rules. If enough people use reopening as permission to behave as if there’s little to no COVID threat, the virus will spike again. European countries are learning that again this month.

No one wants that. Not businesses that need to stay open, nor the workers they employ, nor the families and officials that need COVID metrics to continue improving so that public schools can open their doors again. The governor’s Phase 2.5 opening is a sensible step for North Carolina, but until a COVID vaccine allows us a clearer path ahead, it’s up to all of us not to move backward.

This story was originally published September 3, 2020 at 10:37 AM with the headline "The biggest enemy to NC’s reopening success."