As climate change scorches California, it also raises wildfire risks in North Carolina

As wildfires burned in California and Oregon last week, the remnant of Hurricane Sally soaked North Carolina.

The state was so wet that on the forest fire danger scale of one to five, every part of the state was at one, the lowest level.

The contrast would seem to illustrate that the infernos that scorch the West are not a concern here. And with climate change increasing rainfall in the Southeast, North Carolina would appear to be increasingly insulated from the threat of runaway forest fires.

But forestry and wildfire experts say that’s not a safe assumption. There is more rainfall, they say, but there is also more heat. Last year was the state’s warmest on record and 2016 and 2017 were among the five warmest years since 1985. More rain and higher temperatures foster more vegetation in a state that is 60 percent forested. When droughts occur, there will be that much more fuel.

“All the conditions are there, all you need is a lack of moisture and a spark and all of a sudden things are gone,” said Joseph Roise, a professor of forestry at N.C. State University. “The Southeast this time of year looks like there’s very little probability of fire, but if you look at it long range, it looks like a pretty high danger come November or December.”

But Roise said North Carolina will not see the massive fires of California. In part, that’s because the state has an extensive road network that allows firefighters to reach fires early. In California, forest fires get going in vast and inaccessible areas and are sometimes accelerated by strong winds.

Robert Scheller, an N.C. State University professor who studies the effects of climate change on forests and other landscapes, said California’s climate and terrain present extreme wildfire risks, but North Carolina’s heavily forested mountains also present dangers.

“Our fires will never get as big as California’s, but it doesn’t take a huge fire to burn a lot of homes and for people to die,” he said. “If people don’t have ready access to escape routes, you could have the same effect as you see in California.”

North Carolina was on the edge of a California experience in 2016 when a fire started by two teens in Great Smoky Mountains National Park swept through the drought-stricken forest and into Gatlinburg, Tenn. Homes and businesses were incinerated, more than 10,000 acres burned and 14 people died.

Now the risk of deadly forest fires is growing in North Carolina as more vacation and retirement homes are being built in forested areas.

North Carolina already has the most acres in the nation that fall within what foresters call a “wildland urban interface,” places where development abuts wild areas. Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler estimates that more than 40 percent of North Carolina’s homes are at risk from wildfires.

Cabe Speary, a fire environment forester with the N.C. Forest Service, said the risk is greatest in the mountains, where vegetation gets dry and houses are hard to reach. He said he worries about houses he saw built on stilts near Blowing Rock, surrounded by rhododendron and other plants and trees.

“If (a fire) goes running up that mountain, there’s no way those houses can be saved,” he said.

State and local officials are urging homeowners in wildfire-risk areas to use fire-resistant building materials, clear areas around their homes, keep firewood piles at a distance and develop fire escape plans.

Speary said the apocalyptic scenes out West are not “a picture of our future, but we will have more regular issues with wildfires. It’s going to be wetter here and drier out there, but it’s not going to get better and it’s likely to get worse.”

This story was originally published September 20, 2020 at 12:00 AM.