The intense 2020 election may reveal North Carolina turning to a new political course

Both former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump have described this presidential election as a battle for the soul of the nation. And in that battle one of the most contested fights is in North Carolina, where polls show the two contenders deadlocked.

But if North Carolina is a battleground in the nation’s struggle to assert its prevailing nature and identity, so also is this election a struggle to assert the prevailing nature and identity of North Carolina.

This is a state of the Old South and the New South, of Sen. Jesse Helms and Gov. Jim Hunt, of state Sen. Phil Berger and Gov. Roy Cooper, of red and blue. For years it has swung between these poles, earning a reputation as a moderate or purple state.

North Carolina’s changing demographics suggest it is poised for a shift toward more progressive politics, but its conservative roots remain strong. This election will test whether that shift has arrived, or is wishful thinking on the part of urban liberals who don’t know the state as a whole.

This election will be especially revealing of North Carolina because of a potent combination of elements.

• Feelings are intense and voters are highly motivated. Early voting turnout is setting records despite the fears and complications brought on by the pandemic.

• The playing field is fair. Court decisions have largely cleared the gerrymandering from legislative and congressional districts, extended the deadline for delivery of absentee ballots and allowed absentee voters — many voting by mail for the first time — to correct ballots they submitted with errors.

• The choice is clear. Trump has tried to strengthen his base by splitting the nation. Now voters face a polarized choice.

A Washington Post analysis described North Carolina’s politics as reflective not of one state, but of six regions. To an extent, the analysis said, the regions offset each other, the conservative west pulling against the liberal Triangle as the more moderate regions shift left and right.

But with this election, that balance could be upended. Changing demographics statewide and a growing progressive tilt in the Triangle may ultimately pull the state leftward.

A Washington Post/ABC poll released this week revealed the tensions within North Carolina’s electorate. Trump is favored by white voters in North Carolina by 58 percent to 39 percent. Non-white voters favor Biden over Trump by more than 50 points (among Black voters the gap is 70 points).

Perhaps the most telling trend is what happening in the Triangle, a region reflective of the emerging North Carolina: fast-growing, more residents with college degrees and a diverse population of whites, Blacks, Hispanics and Asians. Biden is favored over Trump in the Triangle by 68 percent to 30 percent, a margin that has ballooned to nearly twice the 22-point margin Hillary Clinton received just four years ago.

David McLennan, a Meredith College political science professor who directs the Meredith Poll, said the Washington Post/ABC poll is consistent with patterns he is seeing. He said the closeness of the race may reflect not just the historic split in North Carolina, but a move toward a different political future.

“Essentially all the polling shows the same thing — urban areas going strongly Democratic and rural areas, particularly in the western part of the state being very Republican.,” he said. “We are at a place in our history with Democrats and Democratic-leaners being almost equal to Republicans and Republican-leaners. Demography will ultimately catch up with Republicans, just like it did in Virginia over the last few election cycles. As younger and browner voters continue to register in higher numbers than white males, the Republican Party is at a very important crossroads. If they stick with Trumpism, they will become a minority party.”

This story was originally published October 22, 2020 at 12:00 AM.