Can anti-Trump Republicans form a viable new party? A prominent NC figure is interested.

When I spoke with Bob Orr last week, the Senate was weighing whether to convict former President Trump for inciting the attack on the U.S. Capitol and Orr was weighing whether to leave the Republican Party.

The former North Carolina Supreme Court associate justice turned tireless Never Trumper had the paperwork on his desk to switch to unaffiliated, but he was still holding out hope that Senate Republicans might find one last shred of conscience and save their party from abject subjugation to Trumpism.

North Carolina’s Sen. Richard Burr tried by voting on Saturday to convict, but the state’s junior senator, Thom Tillis, and 42 other Republicans voted to acquit. That means Orr will be joining other GOP moderates who can’t stomach being part of a party that can stomach Trump.

“There’s going to be a significant push away by a large number of folks,” he said.

In North Carolina, there were signs of a GOP exodus even before the Senate impeachment vote. State Board of Elections records show that 10,104 Republicans switched their affiliation in January, compared with 2,976 Democrats. Among those Republicans, 8,724 switched to unaffiliated, while 2,021 Democrats did the same.

For those long committed to a party’s principles and its candidates, cutting the partisan tie is like being set adrift. Orr doesn’t like the feeling. “It’s like going to a Duke-Carolina game and not caring who wins,” he said.

Is there another option? Can Republicans turned off by Trump’s behavior and the Republican Party’s emergence as the new Know Nothings create an alternative party?

That was the subject of a Zoom call earlier this month. Orr joined the discussion with more than 100 other current and former Republicans, including some who had worked in the Trump administration. Some voiced no opinion, but the rest were split. “About 40 percent thought we should start a new party and 40 percent said we should try to do something within the party,” Orr said.

Could a Republican schism produce a viable new party?

“There is interest and willingness,” Orr said, but it would require the support of a major Republican, such as Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah or former Ohio Gov. John Kasich – and a lot of money.

“If Mitt Romney planted a flag for a new party, there would be a surge of people who would say: ‘I want to be part of that,’ “ Orr said.

Pope “Mac” McCorkle, a professor at Duke Sanford School of Public Policy, isn’t quite sure what will rise from the ashes of the Republican Party’s setting itself on fire for Trump. He said history shows creating a viable third party is almost impossible, but it can’t be ruled out. “It’s not possible until it’s possible,” he said, “but skepticism is very justified.”

McCorkle noted that the Grand Old Party has looked shattered before. The party recovered from the crushing defeat of Barry Goldwater in 1964 and the fallout from Watergate and President Richard Nixon’s resignation 10 years later.

But in those cases, he said, the main actors left the stage and opened the way for renewal. This time, Trump is staying at the center of the party and even considering running again in 2024.

“There’s a defeated standard bearer who still has control of the party,” he said. “You could see a crack up of the Republican Party.”

At least one veteran Republican isn’t worried about Trump splitting the party or an alternative party emerging. Leo Daughtry, a Smithfield attorney who retired after 28 years in the state legislature, said the Republican Party is bigger than Trump.

“I don’t think it’s his party,” he said. “He has a big following, but you have to have more than a big following to win elections.”

Daughtry has seen low points before. He was the Johnston County Republican Party chairman when President Ford lost to Jimmy Carter in 1976. It would be more than 30 years before a Democrat would again carry North Carolina – Barack Obama in 2008

“I think at some point the party will feel the need to get back together,” he said. “We’ll have our far right and the Democrats will have their far left. The question is: How much of the middle can we get?”

For Orr, there is no longer a party to reassemble.

“I think it’s the demise of the Republican Party I’ve known for the past 45 years,” he said. “It may look healthy, but frankly I think it’s on life support. What the alternative is, people are still trying to figure that out.”