COVID-19: Is NC moving too quickly toward normal? Two experts have different views

One year into the pandemic there is cause for optimism in North Carolina. Deaths from COVID-19 are way down, virus-related hospitalizations recently dropped below 1,000 for the first time since October, the daily count of new infections has declined and vaccinations are gaining speed.

But there is also cause for concern. Restless North Carolinians may be resuming normal activities too soon. European countries are locking down amid a new surge of infections. Most people are not vaccinated and a surprising 30 percent of people polled nationally say they have no intention of ever getting a shot. Meanwhile, more contagious virus variants are spreading that may be less limited by vaccines and less susceptible to current treatments.

I asked two experts whether we are becoming less vigilant when there is still a risk of infections surging. Their views ranged from worried to mildly hopeful. Both stressed that the outcome will depend on people persevering in precautions and resisting the sense that the threat of infection is disappearing.

Dr. David Wohl, an infectious disease specialist at UNC Health in Chapel Hill, takes the darker view. He worries that the decline in cases is just the back slope of the post-holiday surge. Now the decline is flattening at the levels North Carolina saw early last summer.

“And that was not a good place numbers-wise. None of us were happy in June of last year,” he said.

The slowing of the decline may reflect the arrival of virus variants, he said, and that’s worrisome for a population that remains highly vulnerable.

“All the elements are there for things to get bad again,” Wohl said while working at a vaccination site at UNC’s Friday Center. “For one thing, a lot of people are not vaccinated yet. In North Carolina, 85 to 90 percent of people are not fully vaccinated. In addition, these variants really are a concern. These aren’t going to be the only variants we’ll see. Variants happen and they’ll continue to happen. They will try to evade any protections we put in place as long as we keep transmitting the virus to one another.”

Limiting transmission is why masks and social distancing remain essential, Wohl said, but some states are easing restrictions tool early.

“It is frustrating to see mask restrictions lifted when this is exactly what has been helping us,” Wohl said. “We put our foot on the gas and got somewhere. To take your foot off that gas pedal is asking for trouble. And the warning signs are there.”

From the other side of the nation, Ali Mokdad, a global-health professor at the University of Washington in Seattle, takes a cautiously optimistic view. Mokdad, a professor at the university’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), has helped develop national and state projections for the pandemic’s path.

The IHME projections show national daily infections – including an estimate of those not confirmed by testing – falling continuously from 132,000 today to below 7,000 by July.

In North Carolina, Mokdad said the pace of vaccinations is impressive and “Everything around you is looking good. (Infections) will keep going down all the way until next winter.” IHME projects North Carolina has about 2,200 daily infections now and will have fewer than 100 daily by July.

“We’re getting vaccinated and the (warmer) weather is going to help,” Mokdad said.

After a year of people being restrained by the pandemic, Mokdad said it’s time to stress the positive but also remain wary.

Mokdad’s view is not all rosy. The IHME projections include worst-case scenarios in which the lifting of mask requirements and the arrival of virus variants results in higher numbers of infections and deaths. And even if the decline does follow the positive summer projection, Mokdad said a rise in infections is likely in the winter as COVID settles into a seasonal pattern similar to the flu.

“We should be in a good position this summer. This winter we may have to regroup,” he said.

The key, he said, is to remain alert and careful. “There is no room for relaxing with this virus,” he said.. “You let down your guard, this virus is waiting for you.”

This story was originally published March 17, 2021 at 12:00 AM.