In NC, the rise of the unaffiliated voter adds to the decline of the engaged citizen

The latest State Board of Elections’ voter registration report makes it official: Unaffiliated voters have surpassed Democrats as the largest voting group in North Carolina.

Over the past five years, Democratic registration has declined, Republican registration has grown modestly and unaffiliated registration has jumped 25 percent to account for 2.5 million of the state’s 7.2 million voters.

What does that mean? For elections, probably nothing. But for democracy it signals the further erosion of political engagement.

The number of unaffiliated voters in North Carolina has been rising since 1987 when the General Assembly gave parties the option of allowing unaffiliated voters to participate in primaries. The Republicans opened their primaries to unaffiliated voters 1988. The Democrats did so in 1996.

“The thought was that if you let them in, they will stick with you through the general election,” said state Senate Minority Leader Dan Blue, a Wake Democrat.

But allowing unaffiliated voters to help choose a party’s nominee removed a major reason to register as a Democrat or a Republican and ensured that the number of unaffiliated voters would eventually eclipse the membership of each party.

Republicans are reading the ascent of the unaffiliated voter as a rejection of the Democratic Party and a chance to win converts. Michael Whatley, chair of the North Carolina Republican Party, said, “When it comes to the unaffiliated, we view them as a huge opportunity. They are voters we want to reach out to.”

But few unaffiliated voters are really up for grabs. Political scientists have found that most of these so-called “independent voters” consistently vote with one party.

David McLennan, a Meredith College political science professor who directs the Meredith Poll, said his surveys show that less than 10 percent of North Carolina’s unaffiliated voters do not have a party preference. “We have found that the ideological makeup of the state’s voters has not changed, even though voter registrations are trending toward the unaffiliated category,” he said.

In a time of highly polarized politics, voters increasingly identify with their political tribe. So why are we seeing more voters choosing to not show their political colors? For many young people, declaring themselves unaffiliated has the appeal of appearing more tolerant and discerning. For many older voters, it’s a way to avoid the judgment of others, even as they consistently vote red or blue.

While unaffiliated voters have little effect on how legislatures work – almost all state and federal elected officials are affiliated – the trend of voters not aligning with a party may not be good for our political system. Democracy is fueled by involvement and commitment. The decline in party affiliation, like the decline in union and church membership and the closing of local newspapers, adds to a loss of civic and political connection and to the estrangement that fuels polarization.

The Republicans and Democrats may have been better off keeping their primaries closed. Instead, party members are taken for granted while party leaders and candidates shape their stands in the hope that unaffiliated voters who lean away from them will somehow lean toward them.

Blue thinks that the outreach to unaffiliated voters encourages moderation. But bringing more people into a party’s tent would have the same effect. When party membership consists only of the most devoted, the parties themselves become narrowly based and vulnerable to capture by extremists (e.g. Donald Trump).

Democracy is about giving people choices and parties should be about giving them choices worth choosing. Weakening the meaning and value of party affiliation invites citizens to disengage from politics. That, in turn, diminishes the breadth and stability of political parties and the choices they offer.

This story was originally published March 20, 2022 at 4:00 AM.