Former NC governor: Upending Trump will take a bold game plan | Opinion
Editor’s note: Jim Martin, a Republican and NC governor from 1985-93, will be a regular contributor to our pages.
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Another great American vote-a-drama is “off and running.” Monday night, hardy Iowans braved a hazardous snowstorm to caucus for Republican candidates. The expected front-runner, former President Donald Trump, won handily. Some called it a crushing defeat of challengers. Was it?
Somewhat surprisingly, Trump barely won 51% of the Republican caucus and 20 of Iowa’s 40 apportioned delegates to the Republican National Convention. Interest now turns to the Republican runners-up who split the “No Trump” vote.
Voter surveys had correctly forecast a close finish between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley. Iowa’s early-bird caucus gave Trump only half its delegates and put DeSantis (with 21% of the vote and 9 delegates) ahead of Haley (19% and 8 delegates). Vivek Ramaswamy got 8% and 3 delegates in Iowa before withdrawing, leaving three candidates standing.
Another Biden-Trump face-off in November is a lose-lose choice for many Americans. National polls show many voters are unhappy with both Biden and Trump. They just can’t agree yet on an alternative.
They abhor Trump’s belligerent swagger and lack of integrity, yet fear Biden’s social policies and competence as much. Neither showed any fiscal responsibility. Both parties seem stuck with candidates almost as old as I am (87).
Various pundits have suggested the only way to retire Trump is if independents qualify for the Republican primaries, state-by-state where allowed, and rally around the top challenger. There was little time to organize movement along these lines in frozen Iowa. Let’s see what Haley can do with New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu’s support in that state’s Jan. 23 primary now that DeSantis has essentially conceded New Hampshire’s 22 convention delegates.
In February, there will be primaries in South Carolina, Nevada and Michigan, plus the Virgin Islands, with another 136 delegates at stake for the Republican National Convention. March 4 will add 134 more Republican delegates from three states and the District of Columbia. Then one-third of all delegates get picked on one day — March 5.
Fifteen states, including North Carolina, join the fray on March 5 (Super Tuesday), with its 871 GOP delegates, raising the cumulative total to 1,204. A nominating majority in the Republican convention requires 1,215, surpassed the following Tuesday when four states with 161 delegates raise the count to 1,365. If no candidate has a majority, the battle will intensify over the final 23 states and four territories. The final three months could be a dogfight for the remaining 1,064 delegates.
Since DeSantis and Haley are now the only challengers left, they must appeal to unorganized independents for help in early Republican “open” primaries, lest Trump appear invincible. If either challenger gains a commanding lead over the other, it will soon be time for the trailing campaign to withdraw, preferably before Super Tuesday. As long as Haley and DeSantis divide up the “No Trump” vote, the former president can win plurality after plurality without outright majorities — as he did while winning the nomination in 2016. And they get nothing.
In 12 state Republican primaries it’s “winner takes all.” Whoever is even slightly ahead gets all delegates. In those states, the strategy must be to persuade voters to choose the leading challenger of the two in their state, regardless of personal preference. Or that state’s third place candidate must choose to bypass it, targeting states with better prospects.
Like most states, North Carolina splits its Republican delegates in proportion to each candidate’s primary vote, with about half based on congressional districts. Even so, there’s no chance of Haley or DeSantis winning unless non-affiliated voters can be motivated in a coherent strategy.
It remains to be seen whether leadership can mount a rally of moderates and centrists for Haley and/or DeSantis in multiple states. A bold game plan won’t matter unless our independent neighbors accept it as their duty.
This story was originally published January 20, 2024 at 6:00 AM with the headline "Former NC governor: Upending Trump will take a bold game plan | Opinion."