A national model forecasts NC going blue for Biden. There are 3 reasons why | Opinion
Could North Carolina be a blue state in 2024?
It’s a question that comes up every election cycle, but every expensive and highly-anticipated campaign ends the same way: with Republicans winning the big federal contests.
So it was intriguing to see a national model forecast that Joe Biden will be the first Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina since Barack Obama in 2008. A new analysis from Moody’s Analytics predicts that Biden will win reelection by a narrow margin, boosted in part by victories in swing states like North Carolina.
What’s notable about the Moody’s model is that it uses economic data to predict election results. Historically, the economy is a strong predictor of presidential elections, because it factors heavily into voters’ decisions at the ballot box. Moody’s model perfectly predicts the winner of every presidential election going back to 1948 with the exception of 2020, which was an outlier due to the pandemic.
So why does the model think Biden will win North Carolina in November? Justin Begley, an economist at Moody’s and a co-author of the report, told me that there are three major factors.
First is the fact that North Carolina was Donald Trump’s narrowest victory in any state in 2020. He won it by only a 1.34% margin, which was less than 75,000 votes; in fact, it was the only state in which he won with less than 50% of the vote. That narrow victory is a big reason why the Biden campaign has made North Carolina a priority this cycle, running television advertisements and hiring a staff to run operations.
The second factor is that North Carolina’s electorate is changing, Begley said. North Carolina has seen especially strong population growth in the past few years, including immigrants and people relocating from other states.
Not all population growth is necessarily favorable for Democrats — some red parts of the state are growing quickly, too. But Begley noted that North Carolina has seen an influx in residents migrating from blue states — New York to Charlotte, for example — which could actually work in Democrats’ favor.
“That carries the potential to make North Carolina at the very least look a little bit more purple, and in 2024, our baseline would be that it actually makes North Carolina blue for this upcoming election,” Begley said.
The third major factor driving the model’s prediction is the state of North Carolina’s own economy. Begley said that North Carolina’s economy has been strong, and the projected income growth of people in the state is higher than the national average. That tends to create a tailwind for the incumbent president, so it could boost Biden in November.
However, all of this comes with a caveat: the model only forecasts a 0.3% margin of victory for Biden in North Carolina. Such a slim margin means that even small changes in variables accounted for in the model could cause the outcome to be different than predicted.
That means that, like most elections, it may ultimately come down to turnout. The model is basing its prediction on an “average voter turnout,” which is to say that it assumes Republicans will have similar nationwide turnout as they did in 2020. Even a relatively minor increase in turnout among Republicans in North Carolina could tip the scales in favor of a Trump victory, Begley said. Low turnout among Democrats could have a similar effect.
That’s true of other variables that are controlled for in the model, such as third-party vote share. If a third-party candidate receives a higher than predicted share of the vote in North Carolina, that could also change the outcome, depending on whether that candidate siphons votes away from Trump or Biden. The same goes for gas prices: any increase between now and November will work against Biden.
So while the forecast may have given Democrats hope that 2024 might finally be the year they win North Carolina, it’s far from a done deal. And even if Biden does win, it’s projected to be close — so North Carolina’s status as a swing state is likely here to stay.
This story was originally published February 3, 2024 at 5:00 AM with the headline "A national model forecasts NC going blue for Biden. There are 3 reasons why | Opinion."
