Is the economy driving your Trump vote? Take a closer look | Opinion

The prevailing theory of the 2024 presidential election is that it’s about the economy, but clearly it’s not.

It’s true that President Donald Trump has framed the election as turning on former President Ronald Reagan’s famous question in 1980 – “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” And polls list the economy as a top concern of voters.

But on the eve of this election, the U.S. economy is, as the Economist magazine recently put it, “The envy of the world.”

Coming out of the pandemic, the U.S. economy has flourished as the economies of other industrialized nations have struggled. The unemployment rate has remained at historic lows. Job growth has been strong. Inflation has subsided and wage growth has outpaced inflation.

Consumer spending, the driver of the U.S. economy, was up by 3.7% in the third quarter, the largest increase in a year and a half. The stock market has soared, a boom for 401Ks. Homeowners are seeing a big boost in their net worth.

And the good times are not just about abstract numbers. Airports are jammed with travelers. Restaurants are full. Retail sales are up. Gas prices are down.

So why is this election supposedly about the economy? Inflation gets the most blame. Consumers are still miffed by the cost of things even though many have seen their incomes increase.

Trump has hammered at this feeling of falling short, calling the policies of President Joe Biden “a disaster.” And voters are buying this fiction. Often it’s enough for them to justify a vote for Trump despite his lies, his felony convictions, his crude verbal assaults and the fact that he inherited a good economy and left office with the economy is a mess.

This recent excerpt from a New York Times report encapsulates the phenomenon of amnesia about Trump’s handling of the economy and a blindness to the strength of the economy today:

Nathan Booth, 27, a surgical resident from the Detroit suburbs, called Mr. Trump’s debate performance this month “embarrassing.” Dr. Booth said he voted for Mr. Trump in 2016 and then for Mr. Biden in 2020 because of the Republican president’s behavior.

Despite those feelings, Dr. Booth said he was inclined to vote for Mr. Trump again this year because of his dissatisfaction with Mr. Biden’s handling of the economy.

“In the last three years, my purchasing power has gone down,” he said. “I have less money than I did before, and I imagine that the majority of the country making under $100,000 is feeling the same way.”

Booth, a future surgeon, will be fine financially. Yet he is considering sending a twice-impeached former president he finds embarrassing back to the White House because of a perceived ebb in his personal purchasing power?

This goes along with those who say they object to Trump’s character flaws, but like his policies. Trump served only one term, most of it embroiled in investigations, administrative chaos and finally a botched response to the pandemic.

Trump’s policies, such as they were, consisted of abruptly pulling out of painstakingly fashioned international agreements, a huge tax cut for corporations and an attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act. His judicial appointments, especially to the Supreme Court, have eroded public confidence in the nonpartisan independence of the judiciary.

So if it is not the economy, or more broadly, Trump’s policies, that are driving support for the former president, what is it?

Many Trump supporters would say it’s about immigration, and that gets closer to the truth. What this election is about is transition, not just the increase in minorities who will become the nation’s collective majority, but the fading of white, and especially male, dominance over the economy and the culture. It’s telling that Vice President Kamala Harris is supported by Oprah Winfrey and Trump by Hulk Hogan. And it’s significant that Harris herself – a child of immigrants and a woman of color – personifies the change.

Trump has harnessed powerful feelings and that may bring him back to the White House. But, if so, it will be a hollow and transitory victory. The nation is constantly changing. More opportunities are being opened to a diverse range of people. And whether Harris wins or not, there will be, as she says, no going back.