What breaking the supermajority means - and doesn’t mean - for Josh Stein and NC Democrats | Opinion

Josh Stein apparently won twice on Election Day.

First, the Democratic attorney general handily won the race for governor. Then – thanks to one Democratic seat apparently gained in the state House pending recounts – he won the ability to successfully veto Republican legislation.

A veto override requires a three-fifths vote in the state House and Senate. Republicans have exactly that in both chambers, but a crucial Democratic net gain of one House seat will leave Republicans one vote short of the override threshold when Stein becomes governor in January.

House Minority Leader Robert Reives, D-Chatham, said in a statement that voters pushed back against Republicans using their supermajority to override dozens of vetoes by Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. “For too long, the supermajority has operated without checks, pursuing extreme agendas that left too many North Carolinians behind,” he said.

That is not the message Senate leader Phil Berger, R-Rockingham, saw in the results. Despite the loss of a House seat, Republicans appeared to make slight gains in the Senate pending final vote counts.

“Since 2010, North Carolinians have put their faith in Republicans to guide the state,” Berger said in a Tuesday news release. “Tonight’s results affirm their continued support of the policies that make North Carolina the best state in the nation to live, work, and raise a family.”

Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, a national group focused on making Democratic gains in state legislatures, said holding the majority is secondary to losing a supermajority. She said it “marks a monumental shift in the balance of power in North Carolina.”

That shift gives Stein and legislative Democrats a powerful tool, but it’s also a fragile one. One Democrat breaking from his or her caucus on a bill could restore Republicans’ ability to override a Stein veto. Last year, such a break became permanent when Rep. Tricia Cotham, of Mecklenburg County, switched parties to give Republicans just enough for a veto-proof majority.

Senate Minority Leader Dan Blue, D-Wake, said the change in the House will make Democrats more than mere observers as Republicans pass legislation. “Once you break the supermajority in either chamber it means you have some role to play,” he said.

But part of that role will be staying alert. Senate rules require 24 hours notice before a veto override vote, but the House can call a vote abruptly when Democratic members are absent.

State Rep. Destin Hall, R-Caldwell, who is likely to become the next House speaker, seems confident that Republicans can work around the narrow loss of their supermajority. At a news conference on Wednesday, he said, “I don’t know that it’s going to substantively change what we end up doing.”

Hall may be right, but it’s clear Republicans would rather not be one vote short of total control. After all, a supermajority was the goal when Republican lawmakers drew new district maps that took effect for this election.

A review of the results reveals how thoroughly the new maps pack Democrats into overwhelmingly Democratic districts while leaving Republicans in districts that clearly favor Republicans, but not excessively.

Of the 49 House seats apparently won by Democrats, more than half were uncontested by a Republican opponent. (A Libertarian was the only opponent to the Democrat in five races.) In another eight districts, the Democrat won with more than 70 percent of the vote. Of the 71 House seats won by Republicans, most of the winning percentages were in the 50s and 60s.

Of the 19 Senate seats won by Democrats, nearly half were uncontested or were won with more than 70 percent of the vote. Of the 31 seats won by Republicans, most were won by percentages in the 50s or 60s, except for a squeaker at 48 percent in District 18.

For all the careful math that went into drawing new districts, Republicans miscalculated by one. Now that could make all the difference.