Gov. Stein’s first budget isn’t about passing — it’s about a new kind of positioning | Opinion

There’s an old joke in North Carolina politics: The governor’s budget is extremely valuable, because where else are you going to find a cheap doorstop?

It’s a fitting description for Gov. Josh Stein’s first budget proposal, released Wednesday. With Republicans in control of the legislature, it has no real path to becoming law. But budgets aren’t just about what will pass.

They’re about priorities, political positioning — and in Stein’s case, sending a message.

At first glance, Stein’s priorities are generally moderate. Yet, as with his recent State of the State address, his positioning is carefully calibrated. There’s still plenty of partisan bite.

Taking the middle ground

Side by side, Stein’s budget lands squarely between the General Assembly’s current budget and the final proposal from former Gov. Roy Cooper. It’s clear that he’s positioning himself between Cooper’s aggressive activism and the Republican legislature’s small-government conservatism.

Take tax policy. Cooper wanted to take North Carolina’s flat individual income tax and split it into two tiers, with higher earners taxed at a higher rate. The General Assembly’s budgets steadily reduce the flat tax rate.

Stein’s budget takes a middle road, keeping the flat tax in place but freezing rates where they are rather than allowing scheduled cuts to continue.

Education policy follows a similar pattern. Cooper spent years calling for the outright repeal of the Opportunity Scholarship voucher program, arguing that taxpayer dollars should not be diverted to private schools.

The Republican-led legislature, meanwhile, has expanded the program, eliminating income limits and dramatically increasing funding.

Rather than pushing for full repeal like Cooper or unlimited expansion like Republicans, Stein is taking a different approach, slowing the program’s growth without reversing course. His new budget proposal includes a moratorium on new vouchers but allows existing ones to remain.

In effect, Stein is conceding that Republicans have won the larger debate on school choice, even as he attempts to slow its expansion.

Stein’s overall spending plan is another example of his balancing act. His budget comes in at $33.6 billion — $900 million less than Cooper’s plan, despite the state’s growing population and rising revenues. It’s also awfully close to where the General Assembly is likely to end up.

One area where Stein fully breaks from Cooper is disaster relief funding. Cooper routinely pushed to spend down North Carolina’s disaster relief reserves, arguing the money was needed immediately. Stein, by contrast, proposes adding another $500 million to the fund — an approach that aligns him more closely with Republicans, who have long prioritized maintaining strong reserves.

Plenty of bite

Of course, Stein’s proposal is far from a conservative budget. There are plenty of tax credits and new programs that Republicans will balk at. Opposing tax decreases and school choice at all sets him firmly at odds with the General Assembly.

And there are even areas where Stein pushes further on spending than his predecessor. Stein proposes a $4 billion school construction bond, nearly double Cooper’s plan. The General Assembly has a different view on the issue, resisting borrowing at all in favor of investing as part of the budget process.

But on the whole, Stein’s budget proposal signals a shift in how a Democratic governor might engage with the legislature. Cooper often used budget fights as a political weapon, clashing with Republicans in highly publicized standoffs. At one point, he even declared a “state of emergency” for public education to rally opposition against Republican policies.

Stein, however, appears to be taking a different approach. Rather than framing every policy dispute as an existential crisis, his budget suggests he is willing to negotiate and stake out positions that leave room for compromise.

A different kind of negotiator

The numbers at this stage only mean so much. Right now, everyone is planting their stake in the ground for a summer of negotiations.

Take Rep. Erin Paré’s recent proposal to raise entry-level teacher salaries to $50,000. She knows the bill won’t pass as written, but it serves as a starting point for negotiations. Stein’s budget should be viewed the same way: It’s a starting point for summer negotiations.

But the way Stein positions himself within that process matters. It could be a pragmatic strategy — or a risky one.

North Carolina’s political divide has only hardened in recent years. Republicans are committed to tax cuts, school choice, and limited government. Many Democrats want a more ambitious progressive agenda.

Stein is trying to navigate between these poles, and that’s no easy task. If he can carve out bipartisan wins, he could redefine how a Democratic governor operates in a Republican-dominated state government.

The way Stein navigates this will define his administration. And it won’t just shape his legacy. It will guide North Carolina’s political future.

This story was originally published March 20, 2025 at 8:04 AM.