2 reasons Dems can be optimistic about NC’s Senate race — and one reason to worry | Opinion
North Carolina’s last few U.S. Senate races have all felt pretty similar. Democrats think it’s going to be different — and for a moment, it seems like it really might be — only to be disappointed again in the end.
In 2026, North Carolina will have yet another competitive and expensive Senate race, with a likely matchup between former Gov. Roy Cooper and Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. There’s no way of knowing if 2026 will be another Democratic disappointment, and if the past few elections have taught us anything, it’s probably pointless to consider the race anything other than a toss-up right now. But there are plenty of reasons for Democrats to be genuinely optimistic about their chances — perhaps even more so than in years past.
Here are two reasons it might actually be different for Democrats, and one reason why Republicans should feel good:
1. It’s North Carolina’s first Senate race in a Trump midterm
In the 2018 midterms, Democrats harnessed anti-Trump sentiment to make political gains across the country. If history is to be believed, something similar should happen in 2026, though it remains to be seen just how strong that sentiment might be. But North Carolina didn’t have a Senate race in 2018, which makes it difficult to predict exactly how voters might behave next year.
In the absence of any direct comparison, the aggregate U.S. House vote from 2018 can offer some insight, according to a recent analysis from Decision Desk HQ. There were 12 contested congressional races in North Carolina in 2018. Decision Desk HQ found that for those 12 seats, Democrats outperformed the GOP by about three points. That represented a more than 5-point swing to the left, as Trump carried those seats by 2.2 points in 2016, their analysis found. If a similar-sized shift happens next year, it would be enough for Democrats to flip the Senate seat based on Trump’s 2024 margin in North Carolina, which was about three points.
2. Cooper is the stronger candidate ...
Cooper is a well-known and battle-tested figure in North Carolina politics — by far the strongest and most recognizable candidate Democrats have fielded for Senate in years. He outperformed Trump statewide in both 2016 and 2020, which means he also outperformed the Democratic presidential candidate on the ballot. North Carolina also had Senate races in 2016 and 2020, and Cooper performed several points better than the Democratic candidates in those races as well. That’s because Cooper knows how to appeal to a wider ideological swath of voters, and he’s done it several times.
Whatley hasn’t had to do that — he’s mostly just catered to Trump. He has had a lengthy career as a political insider at both the state and federal levels, but he’s never run in any election, let alone held any public office. So unlike Cooper, he’s never had to craft a message and narrative for himself that can appeal to the independent voters he will need.
By entering the race for Senate, Whatley joins a small club of former national party chairs who have run for office. A recent blog post from Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a project of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, pointed out there are a few examples in neighboring Virginia. There’s former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe, who ran for governor successfully in 2013, and unsuccessfully in 2009 and 2021. Former RNC chair Ed Gillespie ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2014 and governor in 2017.
The most successful of them is Tim Kaine, another ex-DNC chair who has served as Virginia’s junior U.S. senator for more than a decade. (It’s worth noting, however, that Kaine was a successful politician before chairing the DNC, having held several state and local offices.)
3. ... but he’s still untested
This may be Whatley’s first time on the ballot, but Cooper is somewhat untested himself, too. While Cooper won six consecutive statewide elections between 2000 and 2020, he’s never run in a federal race before. More attention, of course, means more scrutiny. This will be a much more nationalized race than the ones Cooper has run in before, as evidenced by the fact that Republicans are already trying to tie Cooper to national Democrats like Bernie Sanders.
Cooper will join a fairly large club of governors across the country who have attempted to run for U.S. Senate. Between 1986 and 2024, 54 governors have run for a U.S. Senate seat, according to Ballotpedia. Of those, 48% were elected. Cooper is the fourth North Carolina governor to run for Senate in that timeframe. Former Govs. Jim Hunt, Terry Sanford and Pat McCrory have also run, though Sanford was the only one who actually won.
There’s also the fact that ticket-splitting is less common in federal races. Cooper and other Democrats have benefited in past elections from conservative voters who are willing to venture from party lines when voting in races for governor and attorney general, even when they vote for a Republican for president or Senate. Just look at what happened in 2016, and 2020, and 2024. That departure from party fealty is less common in federal races, which is good news for Republicans and Whatley.
Of course, this is still North Carolina. Our elections are notoriously unpredictable, especially when they’re more than a year away. Democrats may feel hopeful knowing they’re running with the stronger candidate and more favorable political environment, but even that doesn’t guarantee victory. Republicans have their own reasons to feel optimistic knowing they haven’t lost a statewide race at the federal level since 2008. There’s a reason why this is expected to be among the most competitive and expensive races in the country next year, and it’s because it’s still anyone’s game.
Paige Masten is a North Carolina opinion writer for McClatchy and the Charlotte Observer.
This story was originally published August 13, 2025 at 9:24 AM with the headline "2 reasons Dems can be optimistic about NC’s Senate race — and one reason to worry | Opinion."
