New poll suggests NC Republicans should change course or face a romp in 2026 | Opinion

A new poll of North Carolinians illustrates how far out of sync Republican state lawmakers are with the popular will.

Republicans used their legislative majority to override dozens of vetoes by then- Gov. Roy Cooper and now are taking the same approach to vetoes by his successor, Democratic Gov. Josh Stein.

But a new Catawba-YouGov Survey shows that most North Carolinians – including a surprising share of those who voted for President Donald Trump – approve of Cooper and Stein and the judgment they’ve demonstrated in office. The survey shows Cooper, now a candidate for U.S. Senate, with a 55% approval to 38% disapproval. Stein does even better, with 58% approval and 30% disapproval.

What should be especially worrisome for Republican lawmakers and whoever becomes the GOP Senate nominee is the support these two leading Democrats have among Republicans. Cooper has the approval of 28% of Republicans and Stein garners an impressive 43%.

The survey was funded by Catawba College’s Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service. Michael Bitzer, the center’s director, said of Cooper and Stein’s GOP support:

“In this day and age of polarized partisan loyalties, it’s really surprising that Democrats can pull those kinds of numbers from the opposition. But Cooper has shown that political prowess, and Stein appears to have that same skill in pulling cross-over partisan support from the opposition.”

Meanwhile, the one GOP lawmakers follow with blind devotion – President Trump – is tumbling in the state that he carried three times. Only 45% of those polled approve of the president, while 54% disapprove. That’s the highest negative rating of three Catawba-YouGov polls conducted during Trump’s second term.

“If Trump’s approval continues to slide and the disapproval moves even higher, then that’s a real danger sign for Republicans that next year could be a traditional kind of mid-term: in other words, a bad environment for their candidates being saddled with an unpopular president,” Bitzer said.

The bottom line is that Republicans are heading into the 2026 midterms with an increasingly unpopular Republican president and a popular Democrat in the U.S. Senate race. That’s a formula for a Democratic surge that could lead to the defeat of Republican lawmakers who think they are in safely gerrymandered districts.

The GOP’s prospects are likely to get worse. Republicans can’t agree on a state budget, an impasse that has held up raises for teachers and state employees. And thanks to Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” the legislature faces painful decisions about how or whether to compensate for less federal support for Medicaid and food benefits for low-income families.

The legislative challenges are intensified by more than a decade of reckless state tax cuts. As federal funding recedes – and an economic slowdown looms – the legislature has little room to adjust. State agencies are already running on bare-bones budgets. Laying off state employees isn’t a real option as there’s already a 20% vacancy rate.

Of course, the legislature could increase taxes, especially on the wealthy and corporations, who enjoyed the largest benefit from the tax cuts. But for those who lead the legislature, raising taxes is anathema.

Trump is adding to the headwinds Republicans will face in 2026 by botching Hurricane Helene relief to western North Carolina, a Republican stronghold. If voters there lose faith in Trump the consequences will fall on Republican candidates.

At the same time, Trump is deepening Democratic support in the Research Triangle by blocking major grants to the independent Research Triangle Institute and UNC-Chapel Hill and Duke.

Republicans have ruled the legislature since 2011. Their agenda is essentially tax cuts, eliminating gun laws, harassing undocumented immigrants, promoting school choice while neglecting public schools and hysteria about transgender people.

It’s not likely they’ll change now, but they should. They could start by working with Stein instead of overriding every veto. A record of bipartisan achievements might be enough to counter a blue wave in 2026. As it is, Republicans who continue to follow Trump and his agenda may be swept away.

Associate opinion editor Ned Barnett can be reached at 919-404-7583, or nbarnett@newsobserver.com

This story was originally published August 27, 2025 at 4:30 AM.