Democratic surge on Tuesday signals trouble for NC Republicans in 2026 | Opinion

While Republicans try to gain an advantage by redrawing congressional districts in red states, voters on Tuesday presented a new map of their own – it’s vivid blue.

In bellwether elections in Virginia and New Jersey, Democratic candidates won by wide margins. A Democratic socialist won the mayor’s race in New York City, and California voters agreed to fight Republican gerrymandering by redrawing their own state’s congressional districts.

In Charlotte — a city where Republicans were as hopeful as they had been in a decade — every Republican lost citywide except for a longtime Republican who ran unopposed in a red City Council district.

The results in Virginia in particular sent a message that North Carolina Republicans’ extreme gerrymandering may not be enough to hold back voters frustrated by President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy, among other key issues.

“By all accounts, 2025 was a Democratic wave year,” said Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College in Salisbury. “The substantial shift in 126 out of 131 Virginia counties and cities from just a year ago shows that Democrats have tapped into the frustration and concerns that Americans are showing toward the president and his party.”

David McLennan, a political science professor and poll director at Meredith College in Raleigh, noted that Democrat Abigail Spanberger’s 15-percentage point win in Virginia’s gubernatorial race should encourage North Carolina Democrats.

“Democrats in North Carolina have to be impressed with the margin that Spanberger won by,” he said. “The double-digit win has to give Democrats confidence that there is enthusiasm for Democratic candidates heading into the 2026 midterms.”

McLennan said the sweep of Democratic victories may force Republicans who have tied themselves to Trump to put distance in 2026 between themselves and a president whose approval rating is negative nationally and in North Carolina.

“Republicans have to be concerned heading into the midterm elections. Trump’s policies are unpopular with voters and Republican candidates have to decide whether they are going to run by fully supporting President Trump or whether they will separate from him on key issues,” he said.

Chris Cooper, a political scientist at Western Carolina University, said Democrats had a good night and that might be a positive sign for North Carolina Democrats running statewide and locally in 2026. But in legislative and congressional races, it may be hard for Democrats to make gains in the face of districts drawn to heavily favor Republicans.

“Democrats who see this as a sign of a major shift coming to the North Carolina General Assembly or congressional delegation will likely be disappointed,” Cooper said. “All but a very small number of the legislative seats in North Carolina lean heavily toward one party or the other, making large movement unlikely. And, a congressional pick-up may be even more difficult.”

Gerrymandered districts do present a tall obstacle for Democrats, but frustration with the economy is a powerful political force. The economy could see more inflation if the U.S. Supreme Court allows Trump’s tariffs to stand. If it finds them to have been illegally imposed, the U.S. government could be forced to refund billions of dollars.

Trump posted on social media that the reasons Republicans fared so poorly on Tuesday was that he wasn’t on the ballot and voters are unhappy about the shutdown of the U.S. government. But the vote was a referendum on Trump, and it underscored that the president and Republicans are getting most of the blame for the budget impasse that has forced the longest U.S. government shutdown.

The direction of voter sentiment was clear on Tuesday. Now the question becomes: Will it still be there when voters go to the polls next November?

“A year is an eternity in politics,” Bitzer said, “but if the current environment solidifies into 2026 with an unpopular president and economic anxiety, then the classic midterm referendum on the president and his party will play itself out, as it appears to have done in 2025.”

Associate opinion editor Ned Barnett can be reached at 919-404-7583, or nbarnett@newsobserver.com

This story was originally published November 5, 2025 at 1:02 PM.