Where do NC midterm races stand? The latest from 2 new polls | Opinion
Two new polls offer the latest glimpse of where North Carolina races stand less than six months out from Election Day.
One poll was commissioned by Carolina Forward, a progressive organization. The other poll comes from Carolina Journal, which is published by the conservative John Locke Foundation. Despite the ideological differences of their sponsors, the polls show the same overall pattern: Democrats continue to have the edge up and down the ballot, and their lead has increased in recent months.
That’s largely consistent with what we’ve seen from other polls throughout this election cycle, so it’s a pretty reliable pattern. Here are the biggest takeaways from the polls:
Carolina Forward poll
In the U.S. Senate race, former Gov. Roy Cooper is polling at 49%, while Michael Whatley is at 42%. That 7-point lead is outside the poll’s margin of error. Cooper has double the support among independents, though nearly a third say they’re still unsure. Cooper also leads with urban and suburban voters, and the two are virtually tied with rural voters. That’s huge for Democrats, who often struggle with rural voters in North Carolina.
Democrat Anita Earls has also increased her lead in the Supreme Court race. She now leads Republican Sarah Stevens by four points, which is a 3-point increase from January. On the generic ballot for the North Carolina General Assembly, 47% said they would vote for a Democratic candidate, while 41% said they’d vote for a Republican. In January, the generic ballot was a tie.
Also included in this poll was a question about the teacher protest in Raleigh earlier this month. Thousands of teachers called out of work to demand higher pay and increased funding for public schools. The poll asked whether respondents support the protest, and 56% of respondents said they strongly support it.
Carolina Journal poll
The Carolina Journal poll is perhaps even better news for Cooper and Democrats. The poll shows Cooper up by double digits, with 50% support compared to Whatley’s 39%. In March, the same poll showed Cooper with an 8-point lead. While Cooper’s lead in this poll is higher than in others, it’s not the first poll to show him reaching the 50% threshold.
Whatley’s struggles with name recognition persist, the poll shows. A third of respondents say they’ve never heard of Whatley, while less than 4% could say the same of Cooper. Among those that were familiar with Whatley, 25% say they have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of him, compared to nearly 50% for Cooper. Polls released last month showed similar figures, which suggests it might be difficult for Whatley to break through with voters.
The Carolina Journal poll also showed Earls with a nearly 6-point lead over Stevens in the Supreme Court race. On the generic ballots, Democrats had a 6-point edge for the state legislature, an improvement from 2.1 points in March, and a nearly 4-point edge for Congress.
Trump’s approval rating is 41.5%, which Carolina Journal says is his lowest recorded approval rating in its poll since Trump began his second term. That’s likely a big contributor to Democrats’ strong showing even in down-ballot races, and will continue to be a thorn in the side of Republican candidates if his approval rating doesn’t improve.
Deputy Opinion Editor Paige Masten is covering politics and the 2026 elections for The Charlotte Observer and The News & Observer.
This story was originally published May 18, 2026 at 2:20 PM with the headline "Where do NC midterm races stand? The latest from 2 new polls | Opinion."
