NC Gov. Cooper says COVID curfews have had success in 2 states. Have they?

Do curfews work to slow COVID-19? It might be too early to tell for sure, given that states have only recently imposed such measures. But on Tuesday, after announcing a COVID-19 curfew for North Carolina, Gov. Roy Cooper cited Massachusetts and Ohio as states in which curfews have showed some success. In an editorial published later that day, this Board said such measures hadn’t really worked in other states.

North Carolina’s curfew goes into effect at 5 p.m. Friday. What do Massachusetts’ and Ohio’s numbers tell us?

First, a note: The lag between new COVID-19 measures and a change in new infections can be days or weeks, researchers say, and the effect on hospitalizations shows up a couple weeks later. So in Ohio and Massachusetts, where governors imposed new restrictions a month ago, the impact is just beginning to appear.

In Massachusetts, Gov. Charlie Baker’s 10 p.m. curfew and early restaurant closings went into effect Nov. 6. Unlike Cooper’s order, Baker’s curfew for individuals was an “advisory” that didn’t threaten fines for individuals. But with N.C. law enforcement officials saying they won’t be pulling over individuals after 10, there’s little difference in this case between an advisory and an order.

Thus far, the Massachusetts curfew has little apparent impact on the virus. New COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations continued to spike as of Wednesday, with cases up 88 percent and hospitalizations up 59 percent in the last 14 days alone. Baker said the continuing upswing might be attributed to Thanksgiving gatherings, but scientists say it’s too early for that behavior to show up in COVID-19 metrics.

In Ohio, the impact of a curfew has been more mixed. Gov. Mike DeWine’s 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. curfew began Nov. 19, and as in Massachusetts and North Carolina, it was accompanied by earlier closings for businesses. Two weeks later, new Ohio infections showed a promising dip, but numbers began to rise again late last week. The state had some COVID counting issues due to backlogged tests showing up in results this week, but excluding those tests, new cases set a record high on Tuesday and hospitalizations are again climbing.

DeWine, alarmed by the rise, appeared to warn last Friday that new restrictions might be imminent. But after meeting with legislative leaders, he backed away and instead voiced hope Monday that that state was seeing “somewhat of a flattening out.”

Like Cooper, DeWine and Baker have some reason to hold off on further restrictions. The next apparent step for each governor is a partial shutdown targeted to counties with significant outbreaks, as California imposed this week. A partial shutdown, which could temporarily halt in-person dining but allow many retail establishments to operate at diminished capacity, wouldn’t be as stringent as the COVID-19 lockdown this spring. It would, however, be another significant burden on businesses and individuals — especially if it’s not accompanied by federal and state relief.

Governors may also be tempted to give curfews a chance with the hope that they can be a bridge to vaccines, which will begin to be rolled out this month. The effects of the vaccine won’t fully be felt until at least next spring, but the combination of early incremental improvement and a benefit from curfews might be enough to get states through the winter.

That’s a risk, however, especially in North Carolina, where more than 95% of ICU hospital beds are occupied in at least eight N.C. cities and towns, according to an analysis of the federal data this week by The New York Times. The state also reported a record high of 6,495 new coronavirus cases Wednesday, two days before the governor’s curfew is set to begin. If more COVID hospitalizations follow our record high infections, Cooper may not have weeks to gauge the impact of curfews here. Ohio and Massachusetts may continue to offer the governor a preview, but so far, it’s not an encouraging one.

This story was originally published December 10, 2020 at 1:21 PM with the headline "NC Gov. Cooper says COVID curfews have had success in 2 states. Have they?."