Credit Obama on economy
Bill Clinton’s first presidential campaign enshrined the idea that economic conditions matter most and that the candidate and his staff should avoid getting dragged into non-economic issues. Thus the memorable slogan, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
That message is guiding the 2016 presidential campaign as well, with candidates on both sides promising to get the economy rolling and help bolster the middle class with tax cuts and job creation. But there’s an odd twist to this focus on the economy because, in reality, the U.S. economy is fairly strong, especially compared with faltering economies around the world. And recent developments suggest it will be even better by Election Day 2016.
It’s true that wages are stagnant, student debt is holding back a generation and the middle class is under pressure. But those issues involve political decisions about debt relief and taxation. The economy itself is remarkably potent despite a weakening of global demand.
President Obama, absorbing a nonstop narrative about his abject failure from Fox News, House Republicans and a squadron of GOP presidential candidates, gets little credit for the U.S. economy’s resilience. He’s used to that, of course. After all, steering the nation away from an economic depression and reducing the nation’s uninsured population by millions haven’t stopped Republicans from declaring his tenure a disaster. But even the pummeled president seems chagrined that he can’t get credit for an economy that is leading the world.
“Overall, we’re making enormous progress,” Obama told the Democratic National Committee’s Women’s Leadership Forum on Oct. 23. “And it does make you wonder, why is it that Republican politicians are so down on America? Have you noticed that? I mean, they are gloomy. They’re like grumpy cat.”
Looking through business news, you see he has a point. Here are some late October headlines from the New York Times Business section as third-quarter earnings reports came in:
With earnings up strongly and its cash pile rising, Google plans a buyback
Thanks to a silver-lined cloud, Amazon surprises with a profit; Its shares soar
Growth in cloud pushed Microsoft’s earnings past Wall Street expectations
Profit surges for Ford propelled by F-150 sales
Defying media gloom, Comcast revenue jumps
Apple profit is up 31% as iPhones sell briskly
Meanwhile, applications for unemployment benefits are near a 42-year low, the price of food is falling and The Times notes that the “37 percent drop in gasoline prices since the summer 2014 is equivalent to a $100 billion tax cut.”
The budget deficit, the ostensible reason for the rise of the tea party as a revolt against stimulus spending, has fallen as a percentage of the overall economy from 9.8 percent in 2009 to 2.5 percent, the lowest level since 2007.
The unfortunate part of the economy’s positive numbers is that they would be much better and the benefits much broader but for congressional gridlock and tight caps on spending. But gridlock may be about to snap. Outgoing House Speaker John Boehner struck a budget deal with Obama that will eliminate until 2017 any drama over a government shutdown and allow for increases in spending. If new Speaker Paul Ryan can continue that cooperative path, the productivity of Congress may encourage the productivity of the economy.
This story was originally published November 1, 2015 at 5:56 AM with the headline "Credit Obama on economy."