Go ahead – vote third party. It won’t help Trump, and here’s why

The idea of a Donald Trump presidency is appalling to me. But I cannot vote for Hillary Clinton. I plan to vote for Green Party nominee Jill Stein, who will be a certified write-in candidate in North Carolina.

The prospect of a third-party “spoiler” tipping the outcome is alarming to many who share a deep foreboding about Trump. It’s triggered some spirited exchanges with family, friends and commenters on Facebook and other online forums who warn of the dire consequences of not supporting Clinton.

I contend such fear is unfounded. Clinton appears headed for a comfortable victory as the country realizes how unqualified and ill-suited Trump would be as president. But even if Trump closes the gap, our votes in North Carolina will not be decisive. Voting patterns elevate a handful of states in the electoral college to be “deciders” of who wins the presidency. Our state is not one of those.

Barack Obama’s election in 2008 marked a major shift in the electoral college landscape. Virginia and North Carolina used to be solidly Republican. Now Virginia seems reliably Democrat, and our state is a true toss-up. But because of our position in the new alignment, voting for a third party in North Carolina, and in most states, will not diminish Clinton or help Trump.

Recently on CNN, University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato predicted Clinton would win “by somewhere between the 4 percent Obama won by in 2012 and the 7 percent he won by in 2008.” If there’s a pattern from those elections, “You can almost hear it locking in for this election,” Sabato told CNN.

If the states are ranked in order of Obama’s winning margins, there is a pattern to be discerned. Starting with the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Vermont and moving down the list, there’s not much deviation in how the states lined up in 2008 and 2012.

In both elections, Obama comfortably won 19 states with 227 electoral votes. Five states in 2012 added 45 votes that pushed Obama over the 270 needed for an electoral college majority. The “decider” states (in ranked order) were Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Colorado. They were followed (in order) by Virginia, Ohio and Florida. Those states’ 60 electoral votes were icing on the cake in both Obama elections.

Obama won North Carolina by a tiny margin in 2008. We were his closest state, but he’d already secured more than enough electoral votes before ours were added. He narrowly lost North Carolina in 2012 when we were Mitt Romney’s closest state. But again, Obama did not need our votes to win.

If Clinton carries North Carolina, it would be a sign she’s winning comfortably nationwide. If she loses North Carolina, she could still be winning nationwide. Only if Clinton were losing our state by a sizable margin would it be a sign she might be losing in the rest of the country. Our votes can pad Clinton’s winning margin but cannot help her if she is losing the election.

Based on patterns from the previous two elections, it’s reasonable to conclude that Clinton could lose Florida, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina – and still win the election. Ohio and Florida are no longer the key battlegrounds. Colorado was the state that put Obama over the top in both 2008 and 2012.

As long as Clinton carries those few “decider” states, she should be assured of winning, regardless of what happens in North Carolina. So, vote for your candidate of choice and enjoy a clear conscience.

And if you’re tired of a relic from the 18th century allowing a handful of states to decide the presidential election, then Google a proposal called the National Popular Vote Plan.

This story was originally published September 7, 2016 at 4:32 PM with the headline "Go ahead – vote third party. It won’t help Trump, and here’s why."