Who has the edge in NC State’s big matchup at Clemson this weekend?
How No. 16 N.C. State and No. 3 Clemson match up for Saturday’s game (3:30 p.m., ESPN):
When Clemson has the ball
The Tigers’ offense works best when the quarterback can run. That’s why they were nearly unbeatable with Deshaun Watson, who was equally dangerous as a runner and passer.
Clemson had a “best of both worlds” thing going with the platoon of Kelly Bryant (an excellent runner) and Trevor Lawrence (an excellent passer).
Bryant started the first four games this season. He threw for 461 yards (36 of 54) and ran 30 times for 130 yards. In the first four games, Lawrence threw for 600 yards (39 of 60) and ran nine times for 24 yards.
Bryant’s legs (he ran for 88 yards and two touchdowns) were one of the main reasons for Clemson’s 38-31 win in Raleigh last year.
But after four games of the two-QB experiment this season, Clemson coach Dabo Swinney made the decision to start Lawrence. Swinney’s decision was for long-term reasons (an eye towards another playoff matchup with Alabama) but it has cost him in the short term.
Bryant, a senior, wasn’t interested in coming off the bench. He chose to take advantage of a new redshirt rule (you’re allowed to play in up to four games and still retain a year of eligibility) and left the program.
That means there’s no experienced backup behind Lawrence, so Clemson can’t really risk Lawrence in the run game. That means more work for sophomore running back Travis Etienne, which has worked out just fine for the Tigers.
Etienne, one of the fastest players in the country, has rushed for 761 yards and 11 touchdowns. He has posted four straight 100-yard games with a career-high 203 in the comeback win over Syracuse on Sept. 29 (when Lawrence was knocked out of the game with a concussion).
Clemson has four running backs who average more than 5.0 yards per carry (Etienne averages an eye-popping 9.2), which speaks to its strength up front.
The ground game sets up Lawrence’s forte, the deep ball, quite nicely. Never at a shortage for talent at receiver, sophomore Tee Higgins (18 catches, 307 yards) and freshman Justyn Ross (14 catches, 286 yards) are the latest in a long line of Clemson greats.
N.C. State’s defense has been effective against the run (107.4 yards per game, 13th in the FBS) but susceptible to deep shots. Don’t be surprised if Clemson tries to match up Higgins or Ross (both 6-4) on freshman defensive back Tanner Ingle (5-10).
With the addition of Ted Roof to the defensive coaching staff, N.C. State has added a “dime” package, which you’ll see more of on Saturday.
The key for N.C. State’s defense is avoiding the big play. Running back Tavien Feaster, who has fallen behind Etienne on the depth chart this season after an equal split of carries in 2017, popped an 89-yard touchdown run on the Wolfpack defense last year.
As strongly as N.C. State’s defense has started the season, it hasn’t faced a team as balanced or talented as the Tigers. Edge: Clemson.
When N.C. State has the ball
In the previous three meetings, N.C. State’s offense has averaged 425.6 yards and 29.6 points against Clemson’s defense. Pretty good. Even better when you consider Clemson’s defense, tops in the ACC over that three-year period, allowed an average of 291.8 yards and 16.9 points per game to everyone else over that span.
In horse racing, they use the expression “horses for courses.” Some matchups just work out better than others in football and N.C. State has had success against Clemson’s defense.
Sixth-year quarterback Ryan Finley, who struggled on the road against the Tigers in 2016, bounced back with a standout effort (338 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions) in last year’s loss in Raleigh.
Finley has taken his game to another level (130 of 187, 1,621 yards, 10 TDs, 3 INTs) this season and so have his receivers. Junior Kelvin Harmon was a matchup problem for Clemson’s secondary last year (eight catches, 155 yards) and will be again. Junior receiver Jakobi Meyers (nine catches, 105 yards) also had his way with Clemson’s secondary.
That’s unlikely to change this year. One big reason? N.C. State’s offensive line has been excellent against Clemson’s vaunted defensive front. Matt Dayes ran for 106 yards in the overtime loss at Clemson in 2016. Finley attempted 50 passes last year and was sacked only once, on a play he took himself to the ground.
One problem for N.C. State has been matching Clemson’s big-play ability. N.C. State has been able to consistently move the ball on the Tigers’ defense but it hasn’t been able to pop as many explosive plays.
Freshman running back Ricky Person, who has run for 200 yards in two ACC games this season, is N.C. State’s best chance at uncorking a home run against the Tigers’ defense. Edge: N.C. State
Special teams
N.C. State’s undoing in the loss in 2016 and 2017 came on special teams.
Kicker Kyle Bambard missed a 33-yard field goal that would have won the game in regulation in 2016. He also missed from 43 and had a 37-yard attempt blocked in that game. Meanwhile, Clemson also converted on a fake punt.
Last year, Ray-Ray McCloud’s 77-yard punt return provided the nightmare fuel for Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren.
N.C. State has fixed its kicking game. Freshman Chris Dunn has made 8 of 11 field goals. Freshman receiver Thayer Thomas has been effective on punt returns but kickoff returns have been an issue for the Wolfpack.
The Tigers’ kicking game is just OK (Greg Huegel is 5 of 8 on FGs) but Amari Rodgers and Cornell Powell are dangerous returners. Edge: Clemson.
Intangibles
If N.C. State owes anyone, it’s Clemson. That loss in 2016 was an all-timer. The players and coaches were devastated after Bambard’s kick slid wide right. Last year’s loss, on a last-second interception, wasn’t quite as painful but N.C. State has proven it can go toe-to-toe with the Tigers.
However, Clemson has an advantage when it comes to high-stakes games. The Tigers have won the ACC and made the College Football playoff (winning it all in 2016) three years in a row. Big games are second nature to the Tigers, who have 14 of their last 16 top-20 matchups.
N.C. State hasn’t won an ACC title since 1979 and hasn’t played a game to decide the division title since 2010. The Wolfpack lost its only top-20 matchups since 2002 last year (at Notre Dame, vs. Clemson).
This is the biggest game for N.C. State football in a long time. For Clemson, it’s just another Saturday. Edge: Clemson.
Prediction: Clemson 24, N.C. State 19
Schedules
N.C. State
Sept. 1 James Madison (W, 23-16)
Sept. 8 Georgia State (W, 41-7)
Sept. 15 West Virginia, ccd.
Sept. 22 at Marshall (W, 37-20)
Sept. 29 Virginia (W, 35-21)
Oct. 6 Boston College (W, 28-23)
Oct. 13 OPEN
Oct. 20 at Clemson, 3:30 p.m.
Oct. 27 at Syracuse
Nov. 3 Florida State
Nov. 8 Wake Forest, 7:30 p.m.
Nov. 17 at Louisville
Nov. 24 at North Carolina
Dec. 1 East Carolina, noon
Clemson
Sept. 1 Furman (W, 48-7)
Sept. 8 at Texas A&M (W, 28-26)
Sept. 15 Georgia Southern (W, 38-7)
Sept. 22 at Georgia Tech (W, 49-21)
Sept. 29 Syracuse (W, 27-23)
Oct. 6 at Wake Forest (W, 63-3)
Oct. 13 OPEN
Oct. 20 N.C. State, 3:30 p.m.
Oct. 27 at Florida State, noon
Nov. 3 Louisville
Nov. 10 at Boston College
Nov. 17 Duke
Nov. 24 South Carolina
Individual leaders
Passing: N.C. State, Ryan Finley (130-187, 1,621 yards, 10 TD, 3 INT); Clemson, Trevor Lawrence (60-100, 868 yards, 11 TD, 2 INT).
Rushing: N.C. State, Reggie Gallaspy (89 carries, 324 yards, 7 TD); Clemson, Travis Etienne (83 carries, 761 yards, 11 TD).
Receiving: N.C. State, Kelvin Harmon (33 catches, 534 yards, 2 TD); Clemson, Tee Higgins (18 catches, 307 yards, 3 TD).
Team stats
Scoring offense: N.C. State (33.0), Clemson (42.2).
Scoring defense: N.C. State (16.8), Clemson (14.5).
Turnover margin: N.C. State (+1), Clemson (-1).
Yards per play: N.C. State (6.4), Clemson (7.5).
This story was originally published October 17, 2018 at 11:22 AM.