Why the same four teams are likely to keep dominating the College Football Playoff

The way the College Football Playoff has played out over the first four years of its existence is clearly a case of unintended circumstances.

The idea from the outset was to get more teams involved in the chase for a national championship. A four-team playoff format meant doubling the number of teams in the championship hunt compared to the previous Bowl Championship Series and NCS National Championship Game designs.

Unfortunately, more teams have not equated to different teams.

Sixteen spots filled the CFP so far, and 11 of those invitations went to four programs. With an appearance in every playoff, and two national title trophies in its case, Alabama is clearly the sport’s kingpin. Clemson follows with three playoff appearances and a national championship. Ohio State (one title) and Oklahoma have two appearances each. The one-time participants include Florida State, Georgia, Michigan State, Oregon and Washington.

Are you ready for this? Two of the four super powers -- Alabama and Clemson -- are expected to be among the top four teams when the CFP releases its first rankings on Oct. 30. Ohio State and Oklahoma are well positioned to take the other two spots.

“I kind of feel like the people who have made the decisions have pretty much gotten it right. I can’t criticize anybody for that,” Alabama coach Nick Saban said when asked of the dominance by four programs in the playoffs. “If some of the same programs have been consistently good, I don’t think they should be penalized for that, either.”

Defensiveness aside, a legitimate reason exists to question if there is a solution to this disparity in the ranks. Or, perhaps, we should continue to expect that the sports royalty will remain seated at the banquet table while the rest of college football settles for the crumbs left in the bowls.

Expanded playoff?

The knee-jerk reaction, mostly spouted by fans, is that the playoffs need to be expanded. Eight teams. Sixteen teams. Sixty-four teams, they cry.

This is not basketball, so the problems associated with expanded playoffs in football are much more layered. First of all, ESPN is paying approximately $5.5 billion to keep the format at four games through the 2025 season. Next, college players already are taxed excessively by playing a 12-game regular season, a conference title game and possibly two playoff games. Finally, there are the logistics associated with multiple rounds of playoffs.

Those reasons --and likely more -- are why college coaches rarely tout expanded playoffs.

“The more we expand the playoffs, the more we minimize the importance of bowl games,” Saban says. “One of the unique things about college football is that bowl games have always been a positive thing for a lot of college programs and a lot of college student-athletes.”

Cutcliffe’s opinion

Closer to home, Duke’s David Cutcliffe has a different take on the playoffs.

“This isn’t really a tournament sport,” Cutcliffe says. “If you start trying to turn it into a tournament, it’s not going to work. . . . I’ll tell you where our tournament is, and this is where every team is held accountable, all of us, is that the regular season is our tournament.

“If you want to be in that dance, that really big dance, you’ve got to play great all year long. That’s a big part of our sport. It’s why our regular season is one of the more healthy regular seasons in all of sports.”

The regular-season tournament rules are not spelled out by the NCAA, but there is a tried-and-true formula. It works like this: Non-Power Five Conference programs are eliminated with a single loss and Power Five Conference teams are permitted two losses. Using that formula, a field that began with 130 teams prior to this season is now down to 12.

The big four

The four teams that have dominated the playoffs remain alive. (The other teams in the playoff hunt include Central Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame, Washington State and West Virginia.)

A few may challenge from season to season, but be prepared to see the same fantastic four reside at or near the top of the college football world for the foreseeable future.

“I don’t know if you can do anything to change it,” Cutcliffe says. “It’s kind of what the free world is all about. You do see some outliers, but it’s tough when you look at the talent level at certain programs. . . .

“I think you’ll see some changes. It’s kind of done that, where the power shifts. There are some programs right on that edge. That’s what makes it special.”

Perhaps we should check back in a decade or so when Duke, UNC and N.C. State are annually joining the playoff party. It is worth dreaming about.