The ACC’s best basketball team is in the Triangle but it’s not Duke
Duke hasn’t won the ACC’s regular-season title since 2010, yet it was picked for the sixth time in nine years in the preseason to win the league.
Let’s pause to review Einstein’s definition of insanity.
It’s easy to understand why Duke is popular in the preseason. The Blue Devils have had the top recruiting class in the country in four of the past five years.
But young talent does not trump experienced, veteran lineups over the course of an 18-game conference schedule or it hasn’t yet. Even Duke’s 2015 national title team finished a game behind Virginia in the ACC standings.
This is a trade Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski, who won the ACC regular season eight times in a 15-year span before the current drought, has been willing to make since relying on “one-and-done” players in 2011-12. It’s not like Duke has struggled in league play since then (90-34) just that it has not been the ACC’s best team.
So as good as R.J. Barrett, the No. 1 recruit in the country, might be and as entertaining as big ‘em Zion Williamson will be, Duke’s not my pick to win the league.
Virginia has been the flip side of Duke, with relatively modest recruits and high returns in conference play (an ACC-best 73-17 since the start of the 2013-14 season).
The Cavaliers, and their stingy defense and steady guards, ran roughshod over the league last year (20-1 if you count the ACC tournament) but flopped in the NCAA tournament.
Even with some key personnel losses (Devon Hall and Isaiah Wilkins will be missed), Tony Bennett’s 10th team will be front-running in the league again but they’re not my pick, either.
North Carolina, which has won the regular season four times since Duke last did, is primed for another run. The Tar Heels and coach Roy Williams have the right mix of Duke (highly-touted newcomers Coby White and Nassir Little) and UVA (veteran leaders Kenny Williams, Luke Maye and Cam Johnson).
White, a lead guard, and Little, a classic scoring wing, will have to be really good to win the league but the benefit UNC has over Duke is when those two talented freshmen don’t have to do everything. They have proven, experienced help.
Clip and save for March to remind me what I get wrong.
On to the “Only* ACC Power Rankings That Matter:”
1. UNC
2017-18 ACC record: 11-7
2018-19 (projected): 14-4
It might get a little bumpy early with that arduous schedule, but like all great coaches, Williams’ teams hit their stride when it matters most.
2. Virginia
2017-18 ACC record: 17-1
2018-19 (projected): 14-4
How do you live down being the first No. 1 seed ever to lose to a No. 16 seed? Go and win the whole thing.
3. Duke
2017-18 ACC record: 13-5
2018-19 (projected): 13-5
Tre Jones is Duke’s first legit point guard since ... his brother, Tyus, led the Blue Devils to the national title in 2015.
4. Syracuse
2017-18 ACC record: 8-10
2018-19 (projected): 12-6
Syracuse wasn’t good last year until the NCAA tournament. This group, bolstered by the return of guard Tyus Battle and the addition of forward Elijah Hughes (a transfer from ECU), will be better from the jump.
5. Florida State
2017-18 ACC record: 9-9
2018-19 (projected): 11-7
Another team that caught fire after a middling ACC season. Another deep, and big, lineup for coach Leonard Hamilton.
6. Clemson
2017-18 ACC record: 11-7
2018-19 (projected): 10-8
The Tigers might have the only functional, true post in the league in senior Elijah Thomas.
7. NC State
2017-18 ACC record: 11-7
2018-19 (projected): 10-8
Guard Devon Daniels (Utah) and forward Wyatt Walker (Samford) were great additions by Kevin Keatts. Those two, with returnees Markell Johnson and Torin Dorn, should push the Wolfpack back into the NCAA tournament.
8. Virginia Tech
2017-18 ACC record: 10-8
2018-19 (projected): 10-8
Already some turmoil in Blacksburg, Va., with the suspension of forward Chris Clarke but Buzz Williams will have the Hokies right by March.
9. Miami
2017-18 ACC record: 11-7
2018-19 (projected): 9-9
Bruce Brown, Lonnie Walker and Ja’Quan Newton are all gone but Jim Larranaga will keep his group chugging along. Sophomore Chris Lykes is the most entertaining guard in the league.
10. Notre Dame
2017-18 ACC record: 8-10
2018-19 (projected): 8-10
Mike Brey conjured eight ACC wins out of thin air last year and will again. Junior guard T.J. Gibbs has a slew of talented 3-point options to feed.
11. Boston College
2017-18 ACC record: 7-11
2018-19 (projected): 7-11
Jerome Robinson (Garner pride!) is gone but Ky Bowman is back and the Eagles will be a tough out. Freshmen Jarius Hamilton (from Charlotte) and Wynston Tabbs add a shot of energy to a thin lineup.
12. Louisville
2017-18 ACC record: 9-9
2018-19 (projected): 6-12
Chris Mack, former Wake Forest assistant and longtime Xavier head coach, will eventually be fine here but he’s got a long rebuild on his hands.
13. Pittsburgh
2017-18: 0-18
2018-19 (projected): 5-13
Your “surprise” team and I’m never* wrong about my surprise team. Admittedly, this is a low bar but coach Jeff Capel will get the Panthers back to respectability in Year 1.
14. Wake Forest
2017-18: 4-14
2018-19 (projected): 4-14
The Deacs have talent and Danny Manning has proven he can develop a big man (Olivier Sarr is next up) but their conference schedule (they don’t get Pitt, Georgia Tech, Boston College or Louisville twice) is unkind.
15. Georgia Tech
2017-18: 6-12
2018-19 (projected): 2-16
We all thought Josh Pastner’s first team (2016-17) was going to be awful. We were two years too early.