NC State football is up and UNC is down, but it all can change in a flash

N.C. State is up and North Carolina is down.

That’s across the board in football: in overall wins, ACC record, national relevance and, for the first time in Dave Doeren’s six-year tenure, in recruiting.

That might be enough for some Wolfpack fans, especially during this week when the neighbors and rivals will meet for the 108th time on Saturday at Kenan Stadium.

But where the Wolfpack (7-3) stands relative to the Tar Heels (2-8) is not high on Doeren’s radar.

“If that’s where we are and that’s where they are, then so be it,” Doeren said. “But that doesn’t do anything for what I have to do in my job.”

Doeren, without ignoring the reality of the rivalry, is trying to get N.C. State to worry about N.C. State. For the Wolfpack to run its own race, independent of UNC.

“Our best football that we’ve played has always been about us getting better,” Doeren said. “And that’s all we’re going to talk about.”

This is a far cry from the rhetoric before the 2011 game between these two schools when then-UNC coach Everett Withers blustered about the power of the “flagship” school and then-N.C. State coach Tom O’Brien retorted with his famous “triple play” zinger about UNC’s academic and NCAA problems.

Withers’ words backfired and motivated N.C. State, which won that game 13-0 in Raleigh.

So maybe there’s a purpose to the intentionally benign comments from Doeren, who has certainly enjoyed his success against Larry Fedora and the Tar Heels with wins at Kenan Stadium in 2014 and ‘16.

But, to Doeren’s point, when his team focus is on N.C. State it has been successful. When it starts to worry about anything but the task at hand, it stumbles. See the painful home loss to Wake Forest on Nov. 8.

A win on Saturday doesn’t make UNC’s season, or change what has happened to Fedora since the Tar Heels hit a tailspin at the end of the 2016 season, but it certainly makes the offseason a little brighter in Chapel Hill.

But it’s still State-Carolina and it provides a snapshot of where both programs are.

Big picture still bright

There’s still a sting around the N.C. State program from the Wake Forest loss. At No. 14 in the College Football Playoff rankings, N.C. State had a chance to play in a major bowl game for the first time in school history and to finish the season ranked in the top 10 for the first time in school history.

That Wake, with a backup quarterback, was able to erase a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter on the road, was a difficult loss to handle.

But N.C. State bounced back with a 52-10 road win at Louisville last week and still has a chance at only the second double-digit win season in school history.

Taking a step back from the immediate disappointment from the Wake loss, N.C. State is still in the middle of one of its best runs in ACC play in school history.

At 10-5 in league play since the start of the 2017 season, only Clemson (15-1) has a better ACC mark since then. It’s N.C. State’s best two-year ACC stretch since Dick Sheridan’s last two teams went a combined 11-4 in 1991 and ‘92.

N.C. State also finished the 2017 season ranked (No. 23), for the only the third time in 20 years, and had a school-record seven players taken in the most recent NFL draft.

In a losing rut

The Tar Heels have labored through a difficult 2018 season, with four losses by seven points or less. The close calls haven’t kept Fedora off the hot seat.

Fedora, in Year 7, has a 45-42 overall mark with UNC and a 28-29 ACC record and a Coastal Division title in 2015 and a share of one from 2012.

Fedora’s best stretch at UNC came in ‘15 and ‘16 when the Tar Heels went 13-3 in league play and with an appearance in the ACC title game in ‘15.

The Tar Heels matched a school-record with 11 wins in ‘15 (and finished No. 15 in the country) and went 19-8 over the two seasons.

But since then, Fedora has amassed an overall mark of 5-17 and 2-13 in ACC play. Both conference wins were against Pittsburgh.

Going back to the end of the 2016 season, UNC has lost 17 of its past 20 games against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents.

Recruiting swing

But the biggest change has been on the recruiting trail. Bolstered by last year’s success on the field and in the draft, N.C. State has commitments from 10 of the top-30 in-state recruits, according to 247Sports rankings. That includes two players in the top 10 and six in the top 20.

N.C. State’s class, with 22 commitments, ranks No. 22 in the country, according to 247Sports.

UNC’s class, with 13 commitments, ranks No. 61 in the country. The Tar Heels don’t have a commitment from any of the top 30 players in the class and only one in the top 50, although that could change.

Doeren’s best recruiting class, according to the high school rankings, was No. 26 last year. Each of his first six classes have been ranked behind UNC’s.

Fedora’s six classes from 2013-2018 were all ranked in the top 35 with the 2018 considered the best at No. 20.

Momentum change

Maybe the comments from Doeren on Monday show a touch of self-awareness. Doeren, maybe better than anyone, understands how quickly the dynamics between the Wolfpack Red and Carolina Blue can change.

It was only two years ago when N.C. State was 5-6 and Doeren was on the hot seat. A loss would have kept N.C. State out of bowl and likely would have cost Doeren his job.

N.C. State went to Kenan Stadium, as a 9.5-point underdog, and rode running back Matt Dayes to a 28-21 win. The Wolfpack went bowling (and beat Vanderbilt) and Doeren kept his job.

“I wouldn’t be standing here today probably, had I not won that game or we had not won that game,” Doeren said. “Our momentum changed, after that win, in our program for sure.”

When it comes to State and Carolina, you never know how or when it will change again.

This story was originally published November 20, 2018 at 9:45 AM.