Can a win against N.C. State help UNC coach Larry Fedora keep his job?

North Carolina will play its final game of the season against N.C. State on Saturday.

For the seniors, and some juniors, it will be their last game at UNC.

For head coach Larry Fedora, it could be his last one, too. Earlier this month, UNC athletic director Bubba Cunningham said while he did not want to speculate on Fedora’s job status, he would evaluate the program at the conclusion of the season.

When asked about his evaluation process, Cunningham said, “It’s everything you do from recruiting, to game day, to the environment you create, to the atmosphere that you provide.”

Under the terms of his contract, Fedora’s buyout would be $12.2 million.

In 2017, UNC suffered at least 17 season-ending injuries, cutting at its depth, and it showed on the field in a 3-9 season that ended with a 33-21 loss at N.C. State..

This season, UNC hasn’t been able to win close games, losing five times by 10 or fewer points. Five of those losses came during a six-game losing streak that was snapped last week with a 49-26 win against Western Carolina.

The Tar Heels are a combined 5-17 over the last two seasons. Two of their five wins have come against FCS competition. The other two wins came against Pittsburgh.

A win against N.C. State would bolster an argument for Fedora to keep his job. A loss would only add to the growing calls for it.

Fedora is 3-3 in his career at UNC against N.C. State. The Wolfpack has won the last two, including a 28-21 win in Chapel Hill in 2016, which likely helped N.C. State coach Dave Doeren keep his job.

Recruiting struggles

The two consecutive losing seasons appear to have taken a toll on recruiting as well. In Fedora’s seven seasons, he has never had a recruiting class ranked below No. 35 nationally. In 2018, his recruiting class was ranked No. 20, which was his best, and that was after a season in which the Tar Heels finished 3-9.

But with 13 recruits committed for 2019, UNC is ranked No. 61. By comparison, N.C. State is ranked 22nd, Duke is 36th, Wake Forest is 50th, and East Carolina is 56th.

The early signing period for recruits begins on Dec. 19.

The struggles have particularly shown with in-state recruiting. Of UNC’s 13 commits, four are from in-state. The highest ranked in-state recruit the Tar Heels currently have is Welton Spottsville, a 6-foot, 195-pound wide receiver, and the 50th best recruit from North Carolina, according to 247sports.

There are a few top 50 recruits who have yet to commit. According to 247sports’ Crystal Ball, Jaden McKenzie, a 6-3, 280-pound defensive tackle from Wake Forest, and the 39th best player in the state, will choose the Tar Heels.

Once a hot name for other jobs

It was this time two years ago, when many had speculated that Fedora might be in the running for the head coaching job at LSU after Les Miles was fired. The Tar Heels were about to finish their season 8-5.

In 2015 and 2016, Fedora’s teams would finish a combined 19-8, including an ACC Coastal Division title. UNC lost in the ACC Championship game to Clemson 45-37.

But Fedora remained with the Tar Heels, even with the threat the school could be penalized by the NCAA for its academic scandal. The NCAA ultimately decided it could not penalize the school.

In May 2017, Fedora signed a contract extension through 2023.

But since its successful 2015 season, the Tar Heels have trended down. In his seven season combined, Fedora is 45-42 overall, and 28-29 against the ACC. Its record against the ACC over the last two years is 2-13.

Remaining optimistic

Fedora said earlier this month that he understands that fans are likely not happy with him. But he has tried not to pay attention to it.

He said his primary objective his to help his players grow.

“That’s the important thing,” Fedora said. “I know my job is to win football games, but it’s also to raise young men into full grown men.”

When a reporter asked on Monday, what in his seven years he was most proud of, Fedora said, “I’ll be honest with you, I’m not looking back on the last seven years.”

“I’m really concerned with getting this team ready to play a really good football team,” he said. “I don’t have time to reminisce right now about what’s going on, or what’s happened in the past. It’s more about what do we need to do to win this football game this Saturday.”

N.C. State is 7-3 this season, and is coming off a 52-10 victory over Louisville, who fired its head coach Bobby Petrino earlier this month.

UNC senior defensive end Tyler Powell, who first arrived to UNC in 2014 and has experienced both the highs and lows of UNC football, said he was happy to win the ACC Coastal Division in 2015, but he’s also grateful for this team.

“Yeah, we’ve had struggles, but I think it’s brought our football team closer together because you don’t see guys giving up,” Powell said. “You don’t hear the fighting in the locker room, pointing fingers. There is none of that.

“I think it shows what a great group of guys we have in the locker room and what a special team we can be if we just put it together all at the right time.”

UNC senior defensive end Malik Carney, who is also playing in his final game at UNC, said getting a win against N.C. State would mean everything.

“Once we get that win, it’s going to take over a lot of things,” Carney said. “It’s going to be a lot of wounds that’s going to be healed when we get this W.”

This story was originally published November 23, 2018 at 2:09 PM.