Duke and UNC play Wednesday. Here are three things the Tar Heels must do to win.
North Carolina senior forward Luke Maye likes how the Tar Heels are playing now. But with the Duke game at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Wednesday night, he see an opportunity for UNC to take a step further.
Much of the hype this season has surrounded Duke and its star freshmen, Zion Williamson and R.J. Barrett, who are projected by some to go No. 1 and No. 2 in the 2019 NBA draft.
The Blue Devils are the No. 1 team in the country, and ranked No. 1 in the NCAA’s new NET Rankings.
UNC (20-5, 10-2 ACC) is ranked No. 8 and is No. 9 in the NET Rankings, and projected to be a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament, according to Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology. UNC is 1-3 against teams ranked in the NET’s top 10 rankings.
A road win over Duke would be the Tar Heels’ biggest of the season and would certainly be a boost to their resume.
“I think playing at their place, them being No. 1, them being one of the most talked teams in college basketball, I think that’s something that gives them a lot of hype,” Maye said, “and I think we’ve got to go over there and prove we can play at that level and get a win in a hostile environment.”
The Tar Heels have won eight of their last nine games, their only loss coming to then-No. 4 Virginia at home 69-61.
Injuries have been a problem recently. Freshman wing Nassir Little, who is dealing with an ankle injury he suffered last week, is expected to play.
But the Tar Heels will be without sophomore forward Sterling Manley, who will miss his 14th consecutive game with a sore knee, and freshman guard/forward Leaky Black, who will miss his sixth straight with a sprained ankle.
That means that the bench will have to continue to step up. UNC is 8-1 in road games this year.
Beating Duke won’t be easy. They have the sixth best offensive rebounding percentage, and when the Tar Heels get beat on the boards, they struggle.
“This challenge we’re facing is different than what we’ve faced all year,“ UNC coach Roy Williams said. “In a lot of ways this is the most gifted Duke team that I’ve seen in the 16 years I’ve been back.”
Here are three things UNC must do to beat Duke:
Make Duke settle for tough shots
Duke has the second-most efficient offense in the country, according to kenpom.com, scoring 124 points per 100 possessions. A big reason for that is the ability to get to the basket. Williamson, who is 6-7, 285 pounds, and Barrett, who is 6-7, 202 pounds, are hard to stop.
And freshman point guard Tre Jones does a good job of getting his teammates good shots.
“Mike calls (Jones) the most valuable player that he has,” Williams said.
Duke is 58.7 percent on two-point shots, which is third-best in the country.
But the Blue Devils’ 3-point percentage, which is 31.3 percent, ranks among the bottom teams in the country, and remains an area to exploit.
Duke missed 17 of its first 21 3-point attempts in its game against Louisville last week and trailed by 23 points in the second half before making a comeback.
The Blue Devils finished the game 7 of 28 from 3, and won 71-69.
Shoot well
The Tar Heels are at their best when they are knocking down 3-pointers. The Tar Heels have shot 45 percent or better from behind the 3-point line in five of their last eight games. They have won all of them.
In their most recent game on Feb. 16 — a 95-57 win against Wake Forest on the road — UNC finished 16 of 25 from the 3-point line. The Tar Heels’ 64 percent 3-point percentage was the third-highest for a UNC team in school history, and highest 3-point percentage on the road.
Shooting better than 60 percent from 3 likely won’t happen against Duke, which holds opponents to 29.7 percent from 3, but if the Tar Heels can put up a respectable number, they will have a better chance.
Both graduate senior Cam Johnson and freshman guard Coby White are among the best 3-point shooters in the conference and when both are hitting their shots, it’s hard to slow them down. Both players have had games in which they have shot 7-for-10 from behind the 3-point line.
“We just have to figure out a way to play them a little better,” Williams said of Duke. “Gonzaga figured out a way to play them a little better. Syracuse figured out a way to play them a little better. And both those teams scored a lot of points. So I think you’ve got to be able to continue to score against their defense.”
Get Duke in foul trouble
Duke is the second-best team in the country at blocking shots, but the Tar Heels should still attack the basket. The more UNC attacks the basket, the more likely Duke will get into foul trouble.
Williamson averages 1.9 blocks per game, but a few times this season, he has had to sit with foul trouble. Opposing teams have gone on runs with him on the bench.
Duke’s starting five is arguably the best in the country, but its bench is not deep.
The Blue Devils primarily use a seven- or eight-man rotation. Its top three players off the bench — Jack White, Alex O’Connell and Javin DeLaurier — average 4.7, 4.1 and 3.4 points per game.
“It’s going to be a tough game,” UNC senior guard Kenny Williams said. “But we’ve just got to focus on what we do and do that to the best of our abilities.”
