ACC tournament scenarios for NC State
N.C. State has three possible landing spots for the ACC tournament, two of them are in the No. 8-9 game at noon on Wednesday in Charlotte.
With two regular-season games left, N.C. State still can finish as the No. 7 seed for the ACC tournament next week. That would require some help from North Carolina or a surprising road win by Louisville at league-leading Virginia.
N.C. State cannot finish as the No. 6 seed, it would lose a group tiebreaker with Syracuse and Louisville, and it cannot fall past the No. 9 seed and into play-in games next Tuesday at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte.
The pertinent standings heading into Tuesday’s games:
6. Syracuse 10-7
7. Louisville 10-7
8. N.C. State 8-8
9. Clemson 7-9
The remaining schedule for the four-team group:
Syracuse: at Clemson (Sat)
Louisville: at Virginia (Sat)
N.C. State: Georgia Tech (Wed), at Boston College (Sat)
Clemson: at Notre Dame (Wed), Syracuse (Sat)
The results for the three-team group:
H-N.C. State 73, Syracuse 58
H-Louisville 84, N.C. State 77
H-Syracuse 69, Louisville 49
How the tiebreaker works
So N.C. State has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Syracuse and Clemson, who it beat 69-67 in Raleigh on Jan. 26, but not Louisville.
The head-to-head results are the first tiebreaker. If more than two teams are tied, the win percentage the group is next. If Syracuse, Louisville and N.C. State each finish 10-8, they would each have a .500 (each 1-1) group win percentage.
Then “best” win would determine the group tiebreak. The best win is determined by starting at the top of the ACC standings and working down.
So right now, for example, Louisville’s win over UNC (14-2) would be more valuable than Syracuse’s win over Duke (13-3). That could change on Saturday if Duke beats UNC. (Duke would finish second if both teams finish 15-3 because Duke’s wins over Virginia would be better than UNC’s best win.)
N.C. State’s best win is over Syracuse and that’s why it can’t get the No. 6 seed if all three teams finish 10-8.
So here are the ACC tournament seed scenarios for the Wolfpack:
No. 7 seed
▪ two wins AND Syracuse loss, Louisville loss AND two UNC wins
(All three teams finish 10-8, Louisville gets No. 6 seed based on the “best” win. N.C. State then wins head-to-head tiebreaker with Syracuse).
▪ two wins AND Syracuse loss and Louisville win
(Only State and Syracuse would be 10-8 and N.C. State has the head-to-head tiebreaker).
No. 8 seed
▪ one win OR one Clemson loss
(State has any head-to-head tiebreaker with Clemson if both teams finish 9-9)
▪ two wins AND Syracuse loss, Louisville loss AND two Duke wins
(All three teams finish 10-8, Syracuse gets No. 6 seed based on the “best” win. N.C. State then loses the head-to-head tiebreaker with Louisville.)
No. 9 seed
▪ two losses and two Clemson wins
(Clemson finishes 9-9 and State finishes 8-10.)
This story was originally published March 5, 2019 at 8:45 AM.
