What the loss to Georgia Tech means for NC State’s NCAA tournament hopes
Kevin Keatts wasn’t sure what N.C. State’s last-second loss to Georgia Tech on Wednesday night meant for its NCAA tournament chances.
Senior Torin Dorn knows the “Senior Night” heartbreaker doesn’t help the Wolfpack (20-10).
“I’m pretty sure it puts us closer to the bubble,” Dorn said. “You have to win games down the stretch. We have to get this (next) game at Boston College and then hopefully a couple in the ACC tournament to be safe. I would think. I’m not an expert, though.”
Dorn’s 3-pointer with 6.1 seconds left gave the Wolfpack a brief 61-60 lead. Georgia Tech guard Jose Alvarado was able to beat the clock down the floor and set up forward James Banks for a dunk, and three-point play, for 63-61 lead with 1.0 seconds left.
C.J. Bryce was able to get a 3-point attempt off, from the top of the key, before the buzzer but the shot hit the back of the rim.
Even the experts aren’t quite sure what to make of the NCAA’s new metric, the NET. Keatts, who wasn’t trying to avoid the question about his team’s postseason fate in the postgame press conference, pointed out that the NET has thrown a new wrinkle into the bracket-projection business.
“I don’t know,” the Wolfpack coach said. “I don’t think anybody knows because of the new system of the NET. It could go totally different than any selection that has ever happened before.”
The NCAA replaced the primary metric it had used since 1981, the RPI, with the NCAA Evaluation Tool. The ranking includes different elements of net efficiency and scoring margin that the RPI didn’t.
N.C. State has been strong in the NET, ranked No. 31 going into Wednesday’s game, in part because it was able to dominate weak nonconference teams early in the season.
The Wolfpack has also, for the most part, avoided the type of loss it suffered on Wednesday (Georgia Tech was No. 130 in the NET). Eight of N.C. State’s 10 losses are to teams ranked in the top 25 of the NET.
N.C. State made the NCAA tournament last year under Keatts, his first season. That Wolfpack team had a trio of marquee wins (Duke, UNC, Arizona) that this N.C. State team lacks. N.C. State’s best wins are against Auburn (No. 20 in the NET) and Syracuse (No. 42).
The Wolfpack’s strength of schedule, No. 353 for the nonconference games, will also be a factor on the negative side.
On the plus side for N.C. State, it wasn’t the only team on the edge of the at-large board to lose on Wednesday. Florida, Georgetown, Baylor and Ohio State also lost.
The loss to Georgia Tech (14-17) does give some clarity to N.C. State moving forward. It will close the regular season at Boston College (14-15) on Saturday and then open the ACC tournament on Wednesday against Clemson.
The Wolfpack will either be the No. 8 seed (with a win over Boston College or a loss by Clemson against Syracuse on Saturday) or the No. 9 seed. Either way, it will be in the noon time slot with the Tigers. It’s just a matter of what color jersey it will wear.
N.C. State beat Clemson in their only regular-season meeting on a last-second 3-pointer by Braxton Beverly on Jan. 26.
Clemson (18-12) beat Notre Dame on Wednesday night to keep its NCAA tournament hopes alive. The Tigers and Wolfpack might be in a play-in situation for one of the last spots on the at-large board come next Wednesday in Charlotte.
“I always think it’s a one-game situation,” Keatts said. “I know everybody talks about bubbles and no bubbles. I think you’ll be able to get a clearer picture after we play Boston College on the road and then obviously when we play in the ACC tournament.”
This story was originally published March 7, 2019 at 8:11 AM.
