A rooting guide for NC State’s NCAA tournament chances
It was a good weekend for N.C. State’s NCAA tournament hopes and not just because the Wolfpack took care of its own business at Boston College.
Fellow “bubble” teams Florida, Alabama, St. John’s, Texas, Iowa and Ohio State all lost.
Auburn and Penn State (the gift that keeps on giving!) both won, which improved and/or protected the value of N.C. State’s “Quadrant 1” wins.
The best thing the Wolfpack did this weekend was beat Boston College like a drum (73-47) to feel better about itself going into the ACC tournament.
The best thing N.C. State can do going forward is beat Clemson in the ACC tournament on Wednesday. Still, there are other things to root for, if you are a Wolfpack fan.
A rooting guide to the conference tournament week:
Go Bulldogs, Bulls, Terriers and Rams
Gonzaga (29-2, No. 1 NET) is going to make the NCAA tournament if it wins its conference tournament or not. Same for Wofford (28-4, No. 14 NET), Buffalo (28-3, No. 16 NET) and VCU (25-6, No. 31 NET).
Wofford faces UNC-Greensboro on Monday night in the Southern Conference title game. Wes Miller’s Spartans (28-5, No. 57 NET) would be a “bid thief” with a win.
The fewer bid thieves, the better for N.C. State and the other teams on the bubble.
Bubble-on-Bubble crime
N.C. State (21-10, No. 32 NET) and Clemson (19-12, No. 35 NET) are the ACC’s only bubble teams and they play each other on Wednesday in Charlotte. That makes for a tidy setup for the NCAA tournament selection committee.
It helps N.C. State (and/or Clemson), that there will be other bubble matchups in the SEC, Big Ten and Big East brackets.
Indiana (17-14, No. 51 NET) faces Ohio State (18-13, No. 55 NET) in the Big Ten tournament on Thursday in Chicago.
Penn State could help out (again) by knocking out Minnesota (19-12, No. 56 NET) on Thursday. N.C. State beat Penn State in a neutral-site game in December. That relatively uninteresting result has turned out to be one of N.C. State’s best wins of the season.
In the SEC tournament in Nashville, Ole Miss (20-11, No. 34 NET) and Alabama (17-14, No. 58 NET) meet on Thursday while Florida (17-14, No. 33 NET) takes on Arkansas (17-14, No. 64 NET).
In the Big East tournament in New York, St. John’s (20-11, No. 66 NET) plays DePaul on Wednesday and Creighton (18-13, No. 54 NET) meets Xavier (17-14, No. 71 NET) on Thursday.
In the Big 12 tournament, TCU (19-12, No. 47 NET) faces Oklahoma State on Wednesday and Texas (16-15, No. 39 NET) takes on Kansas (23-8, No. 20 NET) on Thursday.
So how many spots are there?
There are 36 at-large spots. The way I figure, based on the selection committee’s history and the data the NCAA provides, there are 20 teams that are a lock. These are the obvious teams: Duke, UNC, Michigan, etc.
There are six more teams whose resume stands out, compared to the rest of the at-large board, that are “in.” If those six teams (Baylor, Oklahoma, Syracuse, Minnesota, Seton Hall, Arizona State) lose their first conference tournament game, they might not like what happens to them by Selection Sunday.
That leaves 18 teams for 10 spots — assuming Gonzaga, Wofford, Buffalo and VCU pull their respective wagons into the barn as conference champions.
If N.C. State beats Clemson on Wednesday, I don’t see how it doesn’t get one of those 10 spots. If the Wolfpack loses, there still might be room but it would take a lot of good breaks to go N.C. State’s way.
Those breaks would include Texas, TCU, St. John’s, Creighton and Florida losing in the conference tournament.
This story was originally published March 11, 2019 at 11:53 AM.
