Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers This Week: 3 Storylines on the Way Up and 3 on the Way Down
As we fantasy baseball managers look to improve our fantasy team's rosters it's important to keep up with current MLB news and identify players whose fantasy values are rising or falling this week. Keeping up with the latest trends can help us make the right decisions when submitting waiver claims and is key to staying one step ahead of our fantasy league mates.
Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers
In this week's article I'll give you the low down on Justin Wrobleski, Carlos Cortes and Idlemaro Vargas. There's been a sharp increase in their internet search volume over the past few days, and their fantasy baseball values appear to be on the rise.
On the other hand, Trevor Story, Aaron Nola and Bo Bichette's fantasy value appears to be heading in the opposite direction.
Let's take a closer look at those six players and try to determine what type of fantasy production we can expect from them over the next few weeks.
The Three Risers Gaining Fantasy Value This Week
Justin Wrobleski, Dodgers
Heading into Tuesday's action, Wrobleski has the second most wins (4) and second-best ERA (1.50) among MLB qualified starting pitchers. Wrobleski is keeping his overall walk rate in check (2.7 K/9) and while he struck out a season high six batters in his most recent start, his overall strikeout rate (4.5) is below average. Wrobleski's new approach this season has him challenging opposing hitters in the strike zone and inducing them to make weak contact. So far, with the Dodgers' highly ranked team defense making plays behind him, his strategy has worked well.
Near Term Outlook: Pitching to contact can be dangerous and while Wrobleski hasn't yet given up a HR, his fly ball rate has increased compared to last season and the long ball will likely come back to bite him at some point. His 3.71 xERA is still very good, and with the Dodgers outscoring opponents by 68 runs as of Tuesday, Wrobleski should continue to have good success. Blake Snell's expected return in late May could jeopardize Wrobleski's spot in the Dodgers' six-man rotation but I'd expect Roki Sasaki or Emmet Sheehan to be bumped to the bullpen ahead of Wrobleski.
Carlos Cortes, Athletics
Heading into Tuesday's action Cortes had a .377 BA and 1.121 OPS and had more walks (6) than strikeouts (4). At 29 years old, Cortes has just 155 career MLB at bats and has been a journeyman minor leaguer. He has shown good plate discipline in his seven-year minor league career, while compiling a marginal .254/.340/.439 slash line.
Near Term Outlook: With Brent Rooker on the IL, Cortes has been a regular in the A's outfield but with Rooker healthy, look for Cortes to be used as a strong side platoon DH. Keep him in your fantasy lineup for now but be ready to drop him if and when big league pitchers make adjustments that lead to his bat cooling off.
Ildemaro Vargas, Diamondbacks
Vargas is also swinging a hot bat. As of Tuesday, he's hit safely in all 20 games that he's played and has a .367 BA. With six so far this season, he's also hitting home runs at the highest rate of his career.
Near Term Outlook: Vargas' bat will obviously cool off at some point but his .351 xBA lends credence to his hot start. The Diamondbacks have used Vargas at first base, second base, third base, shortstop and leftfield this season and his versatility should keep his bat in their lineup. His increased power numbers can partially be explained by recent significant launch angle and barrel rate increases. If he maintains his new approach a double-digit HR total is possible. The Diamondbacks will continue to ride his hot streak for as long as they can, and so should you.
The Three Fallers Losing Ground in Fantasy Leagues
Trevor Story, Red Sox
After seemingly putting his injury history behind him last season Story turned back the clock and hit 25 HR and stole 31 bases in 2025. He also significantly cut his strikeout rate in 2025. His K rate dropped from an average of 31.5 K from 2022 to 2024, to 26.9 last season. Unfortunately, Story is batting .191 and has just two HR and two SB in his first 28 games this season. His plate discipline has regressed, and his 2026 K rate has climbed to 30.9%. His chase rate has also increased by almost 10% since last season.
Near Term Outlook: Story believes that in order to work through a slump he needs to play every day and former Red Sox manager Alex Cora kept his bat in the lineup every day. Hopefully your fantasy team's roster is deep enough where you won't have to. Bench him for now, but be aware that Story's offensive production has historically increased in the second half. Based on his expected second half surge, Story can also be viewed as a good buy low option.
Aaron Nola, Phillies
You hear a lot of analysts talk about the Phillies' roster consisting of too many players who are past their prime. Unfortunately, Nola is pitching as if he were past his prime right now. He is 33 years old and since last season Nola has a 6.02 ERA, 1.401 WHIP, and has given up 24 HR in his last 23 starts. Giving up the long ball has been an issue for Nola for the past several seasons. Nola has also had an issue with locating his pitches as evidenced by his current career high 3.7 BB/9 rate. His changeup and knuckle curve have been effective pitches this season but opposing hitters having a combined .380 BAA his four-seam fastball, sinker and cutter.
Near Term Outlook: Nola has given up at least four runs in 12 of his last 23 starts dating back to last season and if you roster him, keep him on your bench for now. He's probably droppable in shallower (10 teams or fewer) leagues. With Nola's velocity close to his career norms, some analysts believe that with a few tweaks and better location of his pitches, a bounce back is possible.
Bo Bichette, Mets
Bichette seems to be a perfect example of Rick Wolf and Glen Colton's SMART System, where they avoid drafting players who recently signed long term free agent contracts and playing for new teams. Bichette has the added burden of learning to play third base for the first time in his career. He's batting .233 with a .570 OPS in his first 28 games and is pressing at the plate as demonstrated by his elevated chase and strikeout rates.
Near Term Outlook: Bichette is a professional hitter and will be fine, eventually. If you can find a league mate willing to trade him to you at a discount you should jump at the opportunity. His xBA of .284 shows that better days are ahead. He's been able to handle the tough NY while slumping, and once he's more familiar with his new surroundings and gets more comfortable fielding his new position, should start hitting like his old self.
Your Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers Questions, Answered
What exactly makes a player a fantasy baseball riser this week?
A riser shows sudden improvement backed by Statcast metrics such as higher exit velocity, better K-BB percentage, or increased hard-hit rate. In this week's analysis we highlight three players whose underlying numbers confirm the surface stats are real and sustainable.
How do fantasy baseball fallers differ from simple bad-luck streaks?
Fallers exhibit warning signs like velocity loss, elevated chase rates, or BABIP regression that point to true talent decline rather than random variance. The three fallers examined here carry clear red flags that advanced managers should address immediately.
Should I add every fantasy baseball riser on the waiver wire right now?
Not automatically. Prioritize based on your league size, roster needs, and the player's remaining schedule. This week's top riser may only help in specific categories, so weigh the opportunity cost before using a waiver priority.
When should I sell high on a fantasy baseball riser?
Sell high once the player's value spike has been recognized by the majority of your league mates, usually when roster percentages climb above 60 percent in 12-team formats. Use the detailed analysis in this article to time your move.
Are these fantasy baseball risers and fallers rankings updated weekly?
Yes. We publish fresh analysis every Friday covering the latest Statcast data and usage trends so advanced managers always have current information before the weekend slate begins.
How reliable are early-season fantasy baseball fallers for the rest of 2026?
Very reliable when the decline is supported by multiple metrics. The three fallers profiled this week show consistent regression signals that typically continue unless a mechanical fix or role change occurs.
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This story was originally published April 28, 2026 at 5:54 PM.