Dylan Crews Is Chasing Too Much and Making the Best Contact of His Career. Both Things Are True.
Dylan Crews is an interesting case in the fantasy baseball world, where his final fantasy verdict varies depending on which number you look at. His surface stats scream at owners to drop him from their rosters. His Statcast page, on the other hand, reveals elite metrics that can't be ignored.
The Nationals outfielder already got a late start to his 2026 campaign, since he started the season playing for Triple-A Rochester. Fast forward to June, and his stats tell two different stories. Worse, both sets of data are true.
So how do fantasy managers solve a problem like Crews?
The Problems Are Real, Not Small Samples
Crews has admittedly been more aggressive at the plate this season. Unfortunately, that means swings at more pitches outside of the strike zone.
In fact, Crews' woes can be tied directly to his lack of plate discipline in 2026. His chase rate has exploded from 29% in 2025 to 37.5% this season, which puts him in the 11th percentile in MLB. At the same time, his walk rate has collapsed from 7.5% to 2.0% in 2026.
The swift departure in both walk rate and chase rate show there is a genuine mechanical or approach problem, and not a small sample size slump.
The Contact Quality Underneath the Chase Problem Is Elite
The plus side of Crews' more aggressive plate approach is that his contact quality has gotten better.
Per Statcast, his average exit velocity (91.4 mph), hard-hit rate (45.5%), and barrel rate (9.1%) have all improved since 2025. He adds a .252 wOBA and .335 xwOBA, which are on par with the stats that made him a top MLB prospect in 2023.
Federal Baseball adds that Crews has typically been more of a groundball hitter. The improved contact quality has led to him elevating the ball, with his average launch angle going from 8.5 degrees in 2025 to 12.1 degrees in 2026.
His Counting Stats Floor Is Real Regardless of How the Approach Problem Resolves
Even with a dismal .189 batting average and depressed walk rate limiting his on-base opportunities, Crews is on the rise in other surface categories.
Crews is on pace to tally another double-digit stolen-base season. (He stole 12 bases in 31 games his rookie season and improved to 17 stolen bases in 2025.) He has also hit four home runs in 25 games, which is a 26-HR pace over a full season. A hitter with a .335 xwOBA and a 9.1 percent barrel rate producing that home run pace is perhaps the best example that Crews is making genuine hard contact during his at-bats.
The Fantasy Verdict on Dylan Crews for the Rest of 2026
Yes, the .189 average and 55 wRC+ are scary and driving managers to drop Crews across different league formats. And yes, the high chase rate is very real and needs to be monitored weekly.
However, his contact quality at a .335 xwOBA and career-best barrel rate is not going anywhere. If his chase rate begins to correct toward his 2025 level, his batting average will go up and his value will spike.
Crews is a good waiver-wire pickup as his surface stats improve, and a hold in deep-league formats that reward his speed and power.
Questions About Dylan Crews, Answered
Should I drop Dylan Crews in fantasy baseball right now?
No. His .189 average and 55 wRC+ are concerning, but his .335 xwOBA, 9.1 percent barrel rate, and 91.4 mph average exit velocity show that his contact quality remains strong. His chase rate is a real problem, but the underlying hitting metrics suggest he still has fantasy value.
What is Dylan Crews' xwOBA in 2026, and why does it matter for fantasy?
Crews' xwOBA is .335 in 2026. The number shows that his quality of contact has been much better than his surface results, which include a .252 wOBA and .189 batting average.
What is causing Dylan Crews' batting average struggles in 2026?
Crews' batting average struggles are tied to his increased chase rate and reduced walk rate. His O-swing rate has increased from 29% in 2025 to 37.5% in 2026, while his walk rate has fallen from 7.5% to 2.0%.
Is Dylan Crews a good buy-low target in fantasy baseball right now?
Yes. His surface numbers have caused concern, but his elite contact metrics, power potential, and stolen-base ability provide value for fantasy managers willing to wait for improvement.
How many stolen bases is Dylan Crews on pace for in 2026?
Crews is on pace for another double-digit stolen-base season. He previously stole 12 bases in 31 games during his rookie season and recorded 17 stolen bases in 2025.
Will Dylan Crews' walk rate recover in 2026?
A recovery is possible if his chase rate improves. His current 2.0% walk rate is a significant drop from his 2025 mark of 7.5%.
Copyright 2026 The Arena Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved
This story was originally published June 20, 2026 at 6:38 PM.