NC State heads to Chapel Hill for men’s basketball showdown vs. UNC. Here’s what’s at stake
Plenty is on the line N.C. State and North Carolina when they play each other for a second time on Wednesday.
The Wolfpack goes into Chapel Hill riding a win over Boston College, which snapped a nine-game losing streak. The Tar Heels return home and seek a second straight victory, which hasn’t happened since early January.
N.C. State (10-15, 3-11 ACC) sits in the bottom three of the ACC standings, and it desperately needs three or four more conference wins to feel comfortable entering the conference tournament. If it remains in the bottom three, it will not make the trip to Charlotte.
On the other side, UNC (15-11, 8-6) may miss the NCAA Tournament for the second time in two years. Bracketologists say the Tar Heels need to go 6-1 to end the regular season with a loss to Duke, or 5-2 if they defeat the Blue Devils, to be considered for an at-large bid. If it doesn’t, UNC will need to secure the automatic berth via the ACC championship.
Both teams have a lot to play for and they face opposite weaknesses. The Pack has relied on defense but struggled offensively. The Tar Heels can shoot the ball with ease but haven’t shut down opponents consistently.
With postseason hopes teetering in the balance, the upcoming game holds plenty of significance. N.C. State, though, has a much smaller margin of error,
“You just know when you play N.C. State — whether it’s in Raleigh or here in Chapel Hill — both teams are going to be playing at a high level,” UNC coach Hubert Davis said. “It’ll be a competitive, fun game to play in.”
What happened since the last meeting
N.C. State’s 63-61 loss to UNC in January was the beginning of a nine-game losing streak. The streak is the program’s longest under Kevin Keatts and tied the worst skid in program history. The team is 1-8 since playing the Tar Heels.
In that span, the Wolfpack lost three games by one possession. It held leads in eight games, including seven second-half leads, but could not finish.
N.C. State snapped its losing streak on Saturday when it defeated Boston College, 70-62.
“It was good. It was refreshing. I thought guys were locked in for two halves; may have been the best two halves that we’ve played, especially on the defensive end,” Wolfpack coach Kevin Keatts said. “Our back was against the wall a little bit. We wanted to win a game here at home. We feel like we dropped a few where we were really close. It was really good. I was happy for our guys to finish, and have them feel good about themselves.”
Meanwhile, the Tar Heels have gone 4-5 since the teams’ last meeting and have not won back-to-back games since UNC beat N.C. State and Cal. Four of the team’s recent losses, however, came on the road.
The Dean Smith Center has been a difficult venue for opposing teams, but winning is not impossible. Stanford pulled off a 72-71 victory at the Dean Dome on Jan. 18 after a back-and-forth contest. Boston College forced overtime a week later and scored 96 points against the Tar Heels.
Wolfpack guard Breon Pass said he feels like round 2 will be a competitive game, and it’s much better entering a tough road environment coming off a win, instead of a 10th straight loss.
“It was very much needed. The Dean Dome it’s a hard place to play in,” Pass said. “Last time we played them it was a match. Definitely good to get our confidence back to get something going. I feel like it’s going to be a good one.”
How N.C. State can win Game 2
Shut down the passing lanes: Elliot Cadeau dished out 11 assists, the most by a UNC player since 2012, in the Tar Heels’ win in the first meeting between the two programs this season. The Tar Heels finished with 17 assists on 26 made shots for a 65.4% assist rate. UNC averages an assist on roughly 50% of its baskets.
Better paint, transition defense: The Wolfpack and Tar Heels rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the ACC for fast break points. Each team averages approximately 14 transition points per game. In their earlier meeting, N.C. State gave up 16 fast break points and only scored 10 of its own.
Additionally, Carolina outscored the Pack 34-28 in the lane and had six second-chance points.
“I thought we gave up way too many transition baskets. Carolina was really good in transition,” Keatts said. “I thought offensive rebounds really hurt us. I just thought they got so many easy baskets. Then, obviously, they made some plays down the stretch.”
How UNC can win Game 2
Limit turnovers: North Carolina was not necessarily sloppy with the ball in the first go-round, but it finished with 12 turnovers. N.C. State scored 15 points from the errors. The Pack, meanwhile, committed nine turnovers, which the Tar Heels turned into 12 points.
“They’re a really talented group. The first thing that jumps out is defensively; their athleticism and their pressure,” Davis said. “In our first matchup, our turnovers and our shot selection was not very good at all, especially in transition. They made us run our offense real far out. We’ve got to do a better job taking care of the basketball. Got to do a better job at our shot selection; not letting their pressure defensively dictate our pace and how efficient we are on the offensive end.”
Stronger defense: Both coaches cited defensive breakdowns as areas of improvement, but the Tar Heels have struggled more than the Pack in that area. UNC allows 76.8 opponent points per game, while N.C. State is holding teams under 69 points this season. In Game 1, Carolina allowed 61 points but gave up five additional shot attempts and three extra offensive rebounds. Had it not been for the Wolfpack’s season-long offensive struggles, the outcome could’ve been different.
Series history
UNC leads the all-time series 167-81, including an 82-23 record in home games. The Heels are 31-7 against N.C. State at the Smith Center. Additionally, the Tar Heels have dominated in the majority of recent games, winning 32 of the last 39 meetings.
The last time N.C. State played in Chapel Hill, the team lost, 79-70, after leading by nine points at halftime. UNC outscored the Wolfpack, 42-25 in the second half. Carolina held the in-state rival to six field goals after the break and 22.2% shooting.
N.C. State’s most-recent win took place in the 2024 ACC final. The Wolfpack defeated the Tar Heels, 84-76, to secure the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
