How does UNC’s ugly loss to NC State impact it in NCAA tournament projection?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Loss limits ceiling without starters, but overall NCAA profile remains intact.
- Injuries raise concern; a late freefall could cause UNC’s seeding to dip.
- If Veesaar and Wilson return, the loss would likely be a minor blip on Selection Sunday.
The absence of North Carolina’s starting frontcourt Tuesday at N.C. State led to a predictably poor outcome.
It didn’t, however, significantly damage the Tar Heels’ NCAA tournament profile in any meaningful way.
North Carolina (20-6, 8-5 ACC) probably turned in its most lackluster performance to date in the 82-58 loss to the Wolfpack. The absence of Henri Veesaar and Caleb Wilson did not help the Tar Heels, and without both, North Carolina’s ceiling is clearly more limited.
But assuming Veesaar (lower-body injury) and Wilson (fractured left hand) return in the weeks before Selection Sunday, a road loss to another team that appears on track to land an NCAA tournament berth is a minor blip on North Carolina’s profile.
The Tar Heels still own victories over Duke and Kansas at home, as well as Kentucky and Virginia on the road. They entered Wednesday in the top 30 in all but one of the seven formulae the selection committee uses to analyze teams. And it has no losses outside of Quadrant 1, the top tier of games in the committee’s evaluation process.
It’s a sound place for any team to find itself in the back half of February. North Carolina isn’t on track to land a No. 4 seed or better, but that wasn’t the case before Tuesday. Even with the defeat, the Tar Heels are projected as a No. 6 seed in the News & Observer’s bracket, though reasonable arguments could be to place them a line above or below that.
Hubert Davis’ team is also effectively out of bad losses to absorb. The Tar Heels’ next game is Saturday at Syracuse, their lone remaining regular-season opponent that is not in at-large contention. But with the Orange at No. 72 in the NET for now, that will not end up as anything worse than a Quad 2 game. (Road games against top-75 teams are Quad 1 chances; trips to Nos. 76-135 count as Quad 2s).
After that? The Tar Heels get Louisville (No. 15 in the NET), Clemson (No. 31) and Virginia Tech (No. 56) at home before a return game at Duke (No. 2). North Carolina could see its seeding dip if its freefalls late, but it’s hard to envision the Tar Heels crashing out of the field.
Of course, if Veesaar and/or Wilson are back soon, a collapse becomes that much more unlikely, and Tuesday’s loss in Raleigh will barely get noticed when the committee convenes to select and seed the field. That game went badly, but it is far from an ominous sign of what’s to come next month for North Carolina
NCAA Tournament bracket projection for Feb. 18
MIDWEST REGION
Buffalo, N.Y.
(1) BIG TEN/Michigan vs. (16) MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/Howard- NEC/Long Island (8) MOUNTAIN WEST/Utah State vs. (9) Southern Methodist
San Diego
(5) Tennessee vs. (12) CONFERENCE USA/Liberty (4) Texas Tech vs. (13) SOUTHLAND/Stephen F. Austin
Tampa, Fla.
(3) Vanderbilt vs. (14) SUN BELT/Troy (6) North Carolina vs. (11) Indiana
St. Louis
(7) Villanova vs. (10) Texas (2) Iowa State vs. (15) ATLANTIC SUN/Austin Peay
Michigan is an easy choice for the top overall seed, with its No. 1 ranking in six of the seven metrics the committee uses to evaluate teams. The Wolverines improved to 10-0 in Quadrant 1 games with their defeat of Purdue on Tuesday. … Texas Tech couldn’t complete its sweep in the desert, falling to Arizona State just days after winning at Arizona. But the Red Raiders own three of the combined eight victories over the current projected No. 1 seeds. The top of their profile couldn’t be stronger. …
Vanderbilt has won five of six since a three-game slide in mid-January, though the Commodores do close the regular season with four of six on the road. … Villanova is into the top 30 in all but one of the committee metrics. The Wildcats have won six in a row entering Saturday’s home against Connecticut.
SOUTH REGION
Oklahoma City
(1) BIG 12/Houston vs. (16) OHIO VALLEY/Tennessee-Martin (8) Wisconsin vs. (9) Miami
Greenville, S.C.
(5) Arkansas vs. (12) MISSOURI VALLEY/Belmont (4) Nebraska vs. (13) BIG SOUTH/High Point
Tampa, Fla.
(3) SOUTHEASTERN/Florida vs. (14) SOUTHERN/East Tennessee State (6) Louisville vs. (11) Ohio State-Texas Christian winner
Philadelphia
(7) N.C. State vs. (10) Texas A&M (2) BIG EAST/Connecticut vs. (15) PATRIOT/Navy
Miami is a combined 9-4 in the top two quadrants, with three of the victories coming in the last week and a half. The Hurricanes have surged from the edge of the field to the middle of the bracket thanks to defeats of North Carolina, N.C. State and Virginia Tech. … Nebraska has lost four of six since its 20-0 start, with its latest tumble coming Tuesday at Iowa. There’s a chance to get well, though, as struggling Penn State and Maryland visit Lincoln in the next week. …
Ohio State’s flaw remains an awful 0-8 record in Quad 1 games, but the Buckeyes slip into the field after handling Wisconsin on Tuesday. Somebody has to fill those last few spots, and a team with mostly top-45 metrics, a handful of road victories and no losses outside the top two quadrants looks good compared to some of the other borderline teams. … Texas A&M’s results-based metrics have dipped of late, but road victories over the likes of fellow SEC midpack teams Auburn, Georgia and Texas have plenty of value.
EAST REGION
Greenville, S.C.
(1) ACC/Duke vs. (16) METRO ATLANTIC/Merrimack (8) Central Florida vs. (9) Southern California
Philadelphia
(5) St. John’s vs. (12) IVY/Yale (4) Michigan State vs. (13) COASTAL/UNC Wilmington
Oklahoma City
(3) Kansas vs. (14) SUMMIT/North Dakota State (6) ATLANTIC 10/Saint Louis vs. (11) Missouri-Virginia Tech winner
Buffalo, N.Y.
(7) Kentucky vs. (10) Saint Mary’s (2) Purdue vs. (15) HORIZON/Wright State
Duke ranks first in the one committee metric that Michigan doesn’t, and checks in at No. 2 in five of the other six. Saturday’s game between the two isn’t quite an indisputable No. 1 vs. No. 2, but it’s close. … UNC Wilmington is up two games in the loss column on College of Charleston with five regular season games left. The Seahawks (22-4) aren’t a serious at-large candidate, so their path to the postseason is winning three games in next month’s CAA tournament. …
Tuesday’s loss at Rhode Island won’t derail Saint Louis’ at-large hopes. The Billikens still rank in the 20s in all but one of the committee metrics entering Friday’s home game against VCU. … It isn’t undermining Purdue’s stout profile, but the Boilermakers have lost to the three best teams they’ve played --- Michigan, Iowa State and Illinois --- and have done so at home.
WEST REGION
San Diego
(1) Arizona vs. (16) SWAC/Bethune-Cookman-AMERICA EAST/UMBC winner (8) Iowa vs. (9) Georgia
Portland, Ore.
(5) Alabama vs. (12) AMERICAN/South Florida (4) Virginia vs. (13) BIG WEST/Hawaii
Portland, Ore.
(3) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (14) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Cal Baptist (6) Brigham Young vs. (11) MID-AMERICAN/Miami (Ohio)
St. Louis
(7) Clemson vs. (10) Auburn (2) Illinois vs. (15) BIG SKY/Portland State
Georgia collected its first upper-Quadrant 1 victory Tuesday with its victory at Kentucky. The Bulldogs still have a little more work to do, but the triumph at Rupp Arena goes a long way toward solidifying an NCAA bid. … As the last of the projected No. 4 seeds, Virginia draws the short straw and gets sent out west. Arizona (San Diego) and Gonzaga (Portland) are in solid shape to anchor their respective sites, but it’s likely a non-West Coast No. 4 seed will also get to both of those places. …
Brigham Young’s school rules about not playing on Sundays mean the Cougars can only go to Thursday/Saturday sites. That limits BYU to the South and West regionals. Buffalo, Greenville, Oklahoma City and Portland play host to the Thursday/Saturday subregionals. … Auburn’s metrics have held up despite a four-game slide. Still, the Tigers (14-11) would be wise to find a way to win at Mississippi State on Wednesday.
Last four included: Missouri, Ohio State, Texas Christian, Virginia Tech First four on the outside: California, UCLA, San Diego State, Santa Clara Next four on the outside: Seton Hall, West Virginia, New Mexico, Virginia Commonwealth
Conference call: Southeastern (11), Big Ten (10), Atlantic Coast (9), Big 12 (9), Big East (3), West Coast (2)