N&O’s latest bracket projection shows strong ACC presence, but Clemson concerns
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Clemson tied atop ACC two weeks ago, now on a four-game skid causing concern.
- Clemson still ranks top-40 in all committee metrics, but losses may dent them.
- If skid includes March 7 vs Georgia Tech, Clemson would have more at stake in ACC tourney.
Two weeks isn’t an eternity in a college basketball season. It just might feel that way to Clemson right now.
The Tigers were tied atop the ACC with Duke coming out of the first weekend of February. They had won 13 of 14 and looked well on their way to making a third consecutive NCAA tournament appearance --- the sort of run Clemson has enjoyed only during the Rick Barnes years (1996-98) and the tail end of the Oliver Purnell era coupled with Brad Brownell’s first year in Death Valley (2008-11).
Four consecutive losses have left Clemson closer to 11th place than first. And rather than cruising back into the field of 68, Brownell and the Tigers could start getting nervous if the slide continues with losses to Louisville (Saturday) and North Carolina (Tuesday).
At the same time, Clemson is far from finished.
The Tigers (20-8, 10-5 ACC) still rate in the top 40 of all seven metrics the tournament selection committee uses to evaluate teams. Clemson owns an enviable road record (6-4) and is 9-5 in games played outside of Littlejohn Coliseum. It has defeated three teams in this week’s News & Observer projected field: Georgia, Miami and SMU.
A 4-5 record in Quadrant 1 games --- the top tier of a team’s schedule --- is not atypical of a team sent to an 8/9 game, which would likely be Clemson’s fate if the season ended today. And it won’t face any nonconference strength of schedule questions; Brownell aced that part of the test in the offseason as the Tigers rank 87th nationally.
However, more losses --- even to tournament-bound opponents --- will likely lead the metrics to slip. Saturday’s home loss to Florida State was Clemson’s first Quadrant 3 stumble of the season, leaving the Tigers’ profile a bit less tidy. And while recent performance hasn’t been part of the committee’s criteria in years, it’s only human for committee members to notice when a team is sputtering late in the season.
The Tigers’ strong showing the first three months hasn’t been erased, and there isn’t reason (yet) to wonder if Clemson could wind up in a play-in game or the NIT. But if things spiral in the next week and a half and the skid extends to include the March 7 regular-season finale at home against last-place Georgia Tech, Brownell’s bunch could have quite a bit at stake in the ACC tournament the following week.
For now, though, there’s some cushion between Clemson and the edge of the field. It just isn’t as much as it enjoyed two long weeks ago.
East Region
Duke takes over the top overall seed after turning back Michigan on Saturday. The Blue Devils are looking at a Greenville/Washington path to the Final Four unless things go seriously sideways in the next two weeks. … Michigan State is the top 16 of each of the metrics at the committee’s disposal, and has not lost a game outside of Quadrant 1. The Spartans are solidly on the No. 4 line, and games at Purdue and Michigan give them room to improve their seed. …
Virginia Tech remains right on the line, ping-ponging in and out of the field. The Hokies have opportunities to create at least a little security when they visit North Carolina and Virginia the next two Saturdays. … Missouri picked off Tennessee on Tuesday, improving to 5-5 in Quad 1 games. The Tigers are getting closer to feeling safely in, and victories at Mississippi State and Oklahoma in the next week would more or less lock them into the field.
South Region
Who is the last No. 1 seed. The committee announced it was Iowa State on Saturday afternoon, and the Cyclones promptly lost to BYU. It might just default to Connecticut at this point --- but that’s subject to change. … Vanderbilt and Belmont are basically across the street from one another in Nashville, their arenas separated by 1 ½ miles. The schools haven’t met since the 2022 NIT. …
Indiana has dropped three in a row and teetering at the edge of the field. The Hoosiers have only two Quad 1 victories and didn’t help themselves with Tuesday’s home loss to Northwestern. … No Division I team has ever won 29 games and missed the NCAA tournament. Miami (Ohio) is 28-0 after handling Eastern Michigan on Tuesday. The RedHawks can’t afford a collapse just yet, but they’re getting close to being exceptionally hard to keep out of the field even with a lack of high-end victories and a poor nonconference schedule. …
Midwest Region
Southern Methodist ranks in the 30s in all the team sheet metrics, firmly placing it as part of a glut of ACC teams around the No. 8 and 9 lines. The Mustangs have some good wins (Louisville and North Carolina at home, Texas A&M on a neutral floor) but the lack of a high-profile road victory could ultimately hurt their seeding. … North Carolina is up to the No. 5 line, but it comes at a cost. Instead of a short trip to Greenville as a No. 6 seed, the Tar Heels get sent across the country in this projection. …
Nebraska’s all-time best NCAA tournament seeding was as a No. 3 in 1991. These Cornhuskers can still surpass that, although a trip to Los Angeles to face UCLA and a desperate Southern California bunch in the next week will have some say in whether that happens. … Saint Louis is not the host institution of the subregional being played about two miles from campus (the Missouri Valley Conference is), so it is eligible to stay home. That could be a tough break for a No. 2 seed that might have to play the Billikens in the second round.
West Region
N.C. State probably can’t fall out of the field even if it drops its last four games (at Notre Dame, Duke, Stanford, ACC tournament). But the Wolfpack definitely has incentive to wind up on the No. 7 line (or better) and avoid a No. 1 seed in the first weekend. … South Florida is the host school for the Tampa subregional, so the Bulls would have to be sent elsewhere if they win the American. …
At 15-13, Auburn is in a dicey situation even with its No. 1 nonconference strength of schedule and five Quadrant 1 victories. The only two teams ever to earn at-large berths while sitting just two games over .500 were 1991 Villanova and 2001 Georgia, who were both 16-14. … Navy locked up the top seed in the Patriot League with three games to spare. The Midshipmen will play all their conference tournament games at home while chasing their first NCAA berth since 1998.
This story was originally published February 25, 2026 at 3:33 PM.