Bracketology: Virginia Tech has path to NCAAs with ACC Tournament win or two
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Virginia Tech can improve NCAA chances with ACC tourney wins.
- Loss to Wake Forest would almost certainly send Virginia Tech to the NIT.
- Surprise league champions could reduce at-large slots and squeeze teams.
By any reasonable measure, Virginia Tech should not be particularly close to making the NCAA tournament field.
The Hokies haven’t won back-to-back games since mid-January. They haven’t taken three in a row since a perfect December. Virginia Tech is 2-10 in Quadrant 1 games, the top tier of games the selection committee looks at while selecting and seeding the field.
Yet Virginia Tech (19-12) has the gift of meaningful basketball, starting with Tuesday night’s meeting with Wake Forest in the first round of the ACC tournament.
And for that, the Hokies can thank not messing up as one of their best virtues.
Sure, a New Year’s Eve defeat of Virginia at Cassell Coliseum and a Feb. 11 triumph at Clemson are doing a lot of work on Virginia Tech’s resume. But the Hokies have no losses outside the top two quadrants (and can thank Florida State, which won in Blacksburg on Feb. 14, for making that possible with its strong finish).
Virginia Tech’s three predictive metrics rankings are scattered between 50th and 66th, but its results-based metrics (which the committee showed a greater penchant for last season) have a narrower band: From 45th to 50th. That includes 46th in Wins Above Bubble (WAB), which drew attention for its usage last season.
On its own, that won’t be enough to lock the Hokies into the field of 68. But they have a chance this week, if only they can take advantage of it.
Virginia Tech is one of a handful of undistinguished contenders for the last at-large spot or two. The Hokies wouldn’t gain much from beating Wake Forest besides getting another shot at Clemson on Wednesday. But a loss almost certainly consigns them to the NIT.
There’s also the matter of whether there are surprise champions in leagues like the Atlantic 10, Mid-American and Mountain West. That could squeeze the field further and require more of a team like the Hokies --- perhaps beating Wake Forest, Clemson and North Carolina in a three-day span.
A daunting task? Certainly for a team that has failed to establish traction since the calendar turned to 2026. But there’s hope, and that’s at least something.
East Region
There shouldn’t be much question about including Miami (Ohio) --- 31-0 is 31-0. But there’s such a wide divide in the RedHawks’ metrics that their seeding is a wild card. Two of their three results-based metrics put them in the top 35. All of their predictive metrics place them outside the top 80. … St. John’s owns exactly three victories over the projected field (Connecticut at home, and a sweep of Villanova). The Red Storm’s metrics provide a narrow range of 16th to 21st. They’ll end up with a line of a No. 5 seed, one way or the other. …
Texas gets bumped into a play-in game thanks to Santa Clara improving its profile by defeating Saint Mary’s in the WCC tournament. The Longhorns have dropped four of five and really need to handle Mississippi on Wednesday. … N.C. State’s late-season swoon has it flirting with a trip to Dayton. The Wolfpack would be well-served to win its ACC tournament opener.
South Region
Regular-season champion Navy’s loss on a buzzer-beater in the Patriot League semifinals leaves Lehigh as the top remaining seed. The Mountain Hawks (17-16) have a NET of 282 and will go to Dayton if they beat Boston University (17-16) on Wednesday. The Terriers (NET: 257) would also get ticketed for a play-in game. … North Carolina is the last of the No. 5 seeds. The Tar Heels would need a good week to get up to the No. 4 line, but a quick exit from the ACC tournament would make them a candidate to slip to a No. 6. …
Purdue isn’t as good as everyone figured it would be, yet it is still between eighth and 12th in all but one of the team sheet metrics and went 8-8 in Quadrant 1 games. The Boilermakers are a likely No. 2 or No. 3 seed. … Monday’s loss to Santa Clara shouldn’t hurt Saint Mary’s too much. The Gaels are between 22nd and 30th in the various formulae the committee considers; that should translate to a No. 7 or No. 8 seed.
Midwest Region
A month ago, this figured to be a harrowing week for Texas Christian. But five victories in a row (and eight out of nine) have the Horned Frogs snugly inside the field. … Big South champion High Point will make its second consecutive NCAA tournament appearance after handling Winthrop in Sunday’s league title game. The Panthers’ Flynn Clayman is the 10th Division I head coach to win 30 games in the first season of his career; the record is 34 set by North Carolina’s Bill Guthridge in 1997-98. …
Santa Clara defeated Saint Mary’s for the second time this season on Monday, a victory that should ensure the Broncos end a 30-year tournament drought. Led by former N.C. State coach Herb Sendek, Santa Clara faces Gonzaga in Tuesday’s WCC title game. … Houston sits between fifth and seventh in all the team sheet metrics and recovered from a three-game slide to win its last three regular season games. The Cougars are solidly on the No. 2 line. …
West Region
In its first year of eligibility, Queens will play in the NCAA tournament after outlasting Central Arkansas in the Atlantic Sun title game. The Royals were a Division II tournament regular before moving up a level in 2022-23. … Northern Iowa won the Missouri Valley tournament as a No. 6 seed, winning four games in as many days to earn its first NCAA trip since 2016. The Panthers actually had the Valley’s second-best overall profile in the regular season behind Belmont and could sneak up to the No. 12 line if things break right. …
Alabama is more than 200 miles closer to Greenville than Tampa, so the Crimson Tide is a serious possibility to join Duke at the same subregional. The Crimson Tide ranks eighth or ninth in all of the results-based metrics in front of the committee. … Villanova went 15-5 in the Big East, but has only one Quad 1 victory in league play (at Seton Hall) to show for it. The Wildcats also defeated Wisconsin in Milwaukee and own team sheet rankings that fall between 22nd and 34th; they’re a probable No. 7 or No. 8 seed.