NC State basketball solidifies NCAA bracket seed case in latest projection
A victory over a 15th-place team in an 18-team league shouldn’t make a major difference for the trajectory of anyone’s season.
Yet maybe, just maybe, it can ease almost a month’s worth of tensions that have built up for N.C. State as it tries to secure an NCAA tournament berth.
The Wolfpack’s 98-88 defeat of Pittsburgh in the second round of the ACC tournament Wednesday won’t do much (if anything) to bolster its overall profile with the NCAA men’s basketball committee. Far more bad things could have come from a loss than good things that stem from a victory.
That’s sort of the point. N.C. State (20-12) didn’t add to its four-game losing streak or fall for the seventh time in eight games. It didn’t provide a reason for the committee to ship the Wolfpack to Dayton for an opening round game or drop them out of the field altogether.
In other words, exhale. There was never reason for panic, and there definitely isn’t now.
N.C. State’s overall resume has remained considerably better than the teams bobbing around at the edge of the field, even as it struggled to close the regular season. Thing is, most of those teams sputtered as well.
Those who wanted to create a doomsday scenario that left the Wolfpack out of the field could have created one --- a quick ACC tournament upset coupled with Miami (Ohio), Saint Louis and Utah State all losing in their league tourneys and three or four out-of-nowhere power conference champions. A major part of that plot, the immediate exit for N.C. State, is off the table.
Instead, the Wolfpack remain a bit vulnerable to getting squeezed into Dayton if there is enough chaos elsewhere. That risk is significantly reduced with an upset of Virginia in Thursday’s ACC quarterfinals, though a loss to the Cavaliers would not cause major (or any, really) damage to N.C. State.
Will Wade’s team entered Wednesday ranked between 30th and 45th in the seven metrics used by the committee to evaluate the field, with five of them in the 30s. That sort of placement hints at a team that will land within a line of a No. 10 seed, and the victory over Pitt isn’t going to change things even if it probably did provide a psychological boost to the Wolfpack and its fans.
East Region
Upsets have left fourth-seeded Montana and seventh-seeded Idaho as the remaining teams in the Big Sky. Montana actually has a better chance of landing in Dayton than the Vandals, who are seeking their first NCAA berth since 1990. … South Florida is the host school of the Tampa subregional and therefore ineligible to play there. If the Bulls win the American, there is a good chance they’ll travel west.
Indiana replaces Virginia Tech in the projected field, but the Hoosiers are similarly unremarkable. They play Northwestern --- a team they’ve dropped six in a row to --- on Wednesday in the Big Ten tournament. … Texas A&M has a decent argument to be a No. 9 seed, but sometimes the cost/benefit analysis of facing a better team in the first round is worth it to avoid a No. 1 seed in the second game.
South Region
If Howard ends up winning the MEAC and getting sent to a play-in game, bank on the Bison not getting funneled into a matchup with Duke. The two teams already met in Durham back in November. … Texas Tech and North Carolina have player availability questions. The Red Raiders are 3-2 without JT Toppin, while the Tar Heels are 5-2 without Caleb Wilson. One win for each in the respective conference tournaments would help solidify their current seeding. …
Wright State wrapped up the Horizon League title Tuesday, defeating Detroit to earn its fifth NCAA berth and first since 2022. … Florida has more Quad 1 victories (11) than anyone than Duke (15), Arizona (14) and Michigan (14). The Gators probably end up on the top line if they win the SEC tournament.
Midwest Region
UMBC hasn’t been to the tournament since its 16-over-1 upset of Virginia in 2018, but it’s a step away from ending that drought. The Retrievers hammered UMass Lowell on Tuesday to advance to the America East final; they’ll host conference heavyweight Vermont on Saturday. … Hofstra will make its fifth NCAA appearance and first since 2001 after handling Monmouth in the CAA final. The Pride won the conference tournament in 2020, only for the pandemic to deny them a field of 68 experience. …
The carnage among teams just above or below the cut line might just leave an opening for Virginia Commonwealth to earn an at-large, especially if the loss it takes in the Atlantic 10 tournament comes against Saint Louis. Of course, the Rams could just end that discussion by winning the event. … Queens noses up to the No. 15 line after Montana replaced Portland State as the Big Sky’s rep in the bracket. At minimum, the Royals are in good shape to avoid Dayton in their first D-I tournament appearance.
West Region
Long Island, already assured the NEC’s automatic bid, beat Mercyhurst on Tuesday to lock up the title. The Sharks will make their eighth NCAA trip and first since 2018. They might also be the first NEC team to avoid a trip to Dayton since 2012. … Vanderbilt is close to making it up to the No. 4 line; it wouldn’t take much for the Commodores to get there. …
Gonzaga’s final WCC tournament ended the same as so many of the Zags’ previous trips to the event: With a championship. The Bulldogs (30-3) are going to be a No. 3 or No. 4 seed playing in Portland. … Siena earned its first NCAA berth since 2010 and seventh overall with its victory over Merrimack in the Metro Atlantic final. Given the travel crunch the NCAA is facing, if the committee can get the Saints to Buffalo or Philadelphia, they’ll do it.