Can beat-up Duke still be No. 1 overall seed in March Madness? Does it matter?

It had been a remarkably dull few weeks for Duke, a team on track for a No. 1 seed nearly all season and the No. 1 overall seed ever since it beat Michigan in Washington on Feb. 21.

The Blue Devils followed that up with four victories by at least 15 points. In the process, they delivered what people expected to see: A national title contender that looked invulnerable to whoever else was populating the ACC.

Thursday might have changed that perception a little bit. Duke (30-2) struggled to put away Florida State in the ACC quarterfinals before surviving 80-79. And both guard Caleb Foster and forward Patrick Ngongba are out for the ACC tournament, and both utilized walking boots and scooters Thursday.

Foster underwent surgery for a broken right foot Sunday, and coach Jon Scheyer acknowledged it was unlikely the junior would play prior to the Final Four. That’s a significant player availability issue, one the NCAA selection committee will evaluate when it seeds the Blue Devils.

Will it cost Duke the No. 1 overall seed? Hard to say. Does having the No. 1 overall seed matter? Hard to say.

Let’s start with the first question. If the Blue Devils beat Clemson on Friday night and then either Virginia or Miami on Saturday, they will have done everything possible to “prove” they’re still a top-of-the-bracket team. They would have 17 Quadrant 1 victories and wouldn’t have lost despite being down two starters.

And if they lose? They still own a head-to-head victory over the team with the next-best profile (Michigan). And it’s not a given the Wolverines will simply plow through the Big Ten tournament after their 71-67 escape against Ohio State on Friday afternoon.

But the bigger issue is there probably won’t be a major difference for Duke even if the committee moves Michigan up to No. 1 overall. The Blue Devils would still open the tournament in Greenville, S.C. Their second weekend would still send them to the East regional in Washington.

And quick, who were the last three No. 1 overall seeds to win the tournament? That would be 2024 Connecticut, 2013 Louisville and 2012 Kentucky. And the last three No. 2 overall seeds to win on the season’s final night? 2021 Baylor, 2019 Virginia and 2018 Villanova.

The top overall seed might be something to brag about, but it isn’t that big a deal. The greatest concern for the Blue Devils is their two sidelined starters, not how much the committee factors their absences into account while assessing the team with the best resume in Division I.

NCAA champions and their overall seeds (since 2012)

East Region

UCLA might be positioned to escape an 8/9 game. The Bruins have won 10 of their last 14, including Thursday’s Big Ten tournament defeat of Rutgers, and face Michigan State on Friday night. All but one of the Bruins’ metrics has them between 25^th and 33^rd. … Akron (27-5) is the top remaining seed in the MAC tournament after Miami of Ohio’s loss in the quarterfinals. The Zips are two victories away from their third consecutive NCAA trip. …

Missouri dropped its last three and finds itself in danger of getting sent to Dayton for the opening round. It would be far more surprising if the Tigers got booted from the field altogether. … Miami has a chance to get up to the No. 6 line with a victory over Virginia. On paper, Thursday’s neutral-court defeat of Louisville was the Hurricanes’ best result of the season.

South Region

Winners of four in a row after taking down Iowa, Ohio State is arguably 10-12 spots clear of the edge of the field. The Buckeyes are one of the few teams in the 9-11 seed range to play well over the last couple weeks. … Texas Tech went 3-3 without JT Toppin, including Thursday’s blowout loss to Iowa State. That absence probably nudges the Red Raiders off the No. 4 line. …

Upon review, Santa Clara might just avoid Dayton. And with only a handful of other potential bid snatchers lurking --- in the Atlantic 10, Big East, Mountain West and SEC --- the Broncos are not going to miss the tournament. … Miami (Ohio) sits at 37^th in Wins Above Bubble. The highest-ranked team in that metric to get left out last season when it debuted on the team sheets was West Virginia at No. 43. It’s a small sample size, but it is something that would seem to favor the 31-1 RedHawks.

Midwest Region

With team sheet metrics between 30^th and 37^th, a 6-7 Quad 1 record, an 8-6 mark away from home and one questionable Quad 3 loss, Georgia has a perfectly designed resume for an 8/9 game. … It’s not easy to move up the top seed lines this week, but Virginia might pull it off with two more victories. Simply getting to an East Coast site (Philadelphia or Tampa or Greenville) over a West Coast site (Portland or San Diego) would be helpful for the Cavaliers. …

VCU finally opens A-10 tournament play Friday against Duquesne. The Rams were helped by a lot of teams collapsing this week, but they still need to go pick up at least two more victories to feel comfortable. … Iowa dips down to a double-digit seed after its loss to Ohio State, but it would still be really surprising if the Hawkeyes even flirted with a trip to Dayton.

West Region

Maybe Villanova’s results-based metrics (all of which are in the 20s) save the Wildcats from a spot in an 8/9 game. But this is a team with only two victories over the projected field: Wisconsin in Milwaukee and Atlantic Sun champ Queens in early November. … North Carolina won’t get to the No. 4 line after losing to Clemson in the ACC quarterfinals, and it’s certainly possible the committee just evaluates a Wisconsin or Tennessee ahead of them to leave the Tar Heels as a No. 6 seed. Anything lower would be mildly unexpected. …

UC Irvine hasn’t reached the NCAA tournament since 2019 despite being an annual contender in the Big West. The Anteaters need two victories in as many nights to end that drought. … Michigan State has a better profile than the rest of the Big Ten teams on the Nos. 2 and 3 lines, and one more victory would make it hard to dislodge the Spartans from one of the field’s top-eight seeds.