Final March Madness bracket projection on Selection Sunday. How will ACC fare?
Here’s what to expect when you’re an ACC team expecting an NCAA tournament berth a little after 6 p.m. on Sunday.
* Duke. The No. 1 overall seed. The Blue Devils (32-2) lead the country with 17 Quadrant 1 victories, and they own a head-to-head victory over the only team (Michigan) that can tie them atop that category.
* Virginia. The Cavaliers (29-5) rank seventh or eighth in all the results-based metrics on the selection committee’s team sheets (though lower in the predictive formulae), they’re 8-4 in Quad 1 and a combined 17-5 in the top two quadrants. They didn’t beat anyone projected to earn a No. 5 seed or better, but the overall profile suggests Virginia could climb to the No. 3 line.
* North Carolina. Another team with better results-based numbers than predictive ones, the Tar Heels (24-8) also have a player availability question since Caleb Wilson is done for the year. North Carolina was 5-3 without him, which shouldn’t cost Carolina too much. It’s likely a No. 6 seed, but it’s plausible it drops a line further than that.
* Louisville. The Cardinals (23-10) don’t have results-based metrics working in their favor, but they still don’t rate lower than 26th in any of the team sheet rankings. The floor is a No. 7 seed, and there’s a good chance that last week’s victory at Miami provides more of a boost to Louisville than the Hurricanes’ neutral-site defeat of the Cardinals in the ACC tournament generated for them. Quite possibly the last of the No. 6 seeds.
* Miami. The Hurricanes (25-8) went 6-6 in Quad 1 and 12-8 against the top two quads. That’s good enough for a No. 7 seed, maybe a No. 6 if you squint right. Miami’s metrics place it between 25th and 40th, which suggests an 8/9 game assignment is possible.
* Clemson. The Tigers (24-10) are a quintessential No. 8 or No. 9 seed, with a narrow band of team sheet rankings placing them between 29th and 36th. Like Miami, Clemson was 6-6 in Quad 1 games and a similar 13-10 in the top two quads and it has no bad losses. The Tigers could find themselves in Buffalo (with Michigan), San Diego (with Arizona) or Tampa (with Florida) this week.
* N.C. State. For all the hullaballoo about the Wolfpack struggling down the stretch, it’s still in fine shape for an at-large. N.C. State (20-13) has metrics between 33rd and 43rd. It could yet get sent to Dayton --- especially if, coincidentally, Dayton wins the Atlantic 10 final --- but a double-digit at-large seed seems like the most probable outcome.
* Southern Methodist. The Mustangs (20-13) need two things to happen. One, VCU to beat Dayton in the Atlantic 10 title game. A Dayton victory would bump somebody from the field, and SMU with its high-floor/low-ceiling profile would be a great candidate. Two, it needs the committee to think it’s better than at least two out of Texas, Oklahoma and Auburn. Those four have the overall resumes that place them right around the edge of the field.
Projected NCAA Tournament bracket
Last four included: Santa Clara, Missouri, Texas, Southern Methodist
First four on the outside: Oklahoma, Auburn, San Diego State, Indiana
Next four on the outside: New Mexico, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, California
Moving in: Cal Baptist, Hawaii, Kennesaw State, Penn, Prairie View A&M
Moving out: Louisiana Tech, Southern, UC Irvine, Utah Valley, Yale
Conference call: Southeastern (10), Big Ten (9), Atlantic Coast (8), Big 12 (8), Big East (3), West Coast (3), Atlantic 10 (2), Mid-American (2)
(For formatting purposes: East vs. South, Midwest vs. West)
East Region
Greenville, S.C.
(1) ACC/Duke vs. (16) NEC/Long Island-SWAC/Prairie View A&M winner
(8) Ohio State vs. (9) Texas Christian
Tampa, Fla.
(5) Arkansas vs. (12) MISSOURI VALLEY/Northern Iowa
(4) Illinois vs. (13) COASTAL/Hofstra
St. Louis
(3) Vanderbilt vs. (14) HORIZON/Wright State
(6) Louisville vs. (11) Santa Clara-Texas winner
Philadelphia
(7) UCLA vs. (10) N.C. State
(2) Connecticut vs. (15) METRO ATLANTIC/Siena
Duke will be the No. 1 overall seed and have a Greenville/Washington path to the Final Four after winning its third ACC title in four years. Saturday’s defeat of Virginia should remove any doubt to the contrary. … Prairie View A&M won the SWAC as a No. 8 seed, winning four games in a five-day span. The Panthers will make their third NCAA trip and first since 2019. …
It’s not easy to make a case for climbing a couple seed lines in the final week of the season. Vanderbilt has done it by handling Tennessee and then shredding Florida. The Commodores have a really good case to be a No. 3 seed. … Santa Clara was the unlucky team bumped to Dayton as a result of Saint Louis’ loss in the Atlantic 10 semifinals, but it’s possible N.C. State or Miami of Ohio gets that ticket instead.
South Region
Tampa, Fla.
(1) Florida vs. (16) MEAC/Howard-PATRIOT/Lehigh winner
(8) Clemson vs. (9) Central Florida
Oklahoma City
(5) Kansas vs. (12) SOUTHLAND/McNeese State
(4) Nebraska vs. (13) SUMMIT/North Dakota State
Buffalo, N.Y.
(3) Michigan State vs. (14) HORIZON/Wright State
(6) Brigham Young vs. (11) Missouri-Southern Methodist winner
Oklahoma City
(7) Miami vs. (10) Saint Louis
(2) Houston vs. (15) BIG SKY/Idaho
Howard, coached by former Duke guard Kenny Blakeney, won the MEAC tournament for the third time in four years. The Bison played Duke earlier this season, so they’re likely to end up in the play-in game that doesn’t funnel into a meeting with the Blue Devils. … The real-world issue of limited charter flights makes Central Florida a logical possibility to make the trip down I-4 to Tampa. And if Florida ends up a No. 2 seed, it’s plausible the committee finagles a Miami-UCF 7/10 game. …
An important variable to remember: Brigham Young can only be sent to Thursday/Saturday sites, so they have to be the South or West regional. The Cougars’ options for the first weekend are Buffalo, Greenville, Oklahoma City and Portland. … Saint Louis started 24-1, then split its last eight games. That might make the Billikens a double-digit seed, with a bit of a risk to end up in a play-in game. They’re between 29th and 43rd in the team sheet metrics.
Midwest Region
Buffalo, N.Y.
(1) BIG TEN/Michigan vs. (16) AMERICA EAST/UMBC
(8) Villanova vs. (9) Texas A&M
San Diego
(5) Texas Tech vs. (12) BIG SOUTH/High Point
(4) Alabama vs. (13) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Cal Baptist
Philadelphia
(3) Virginia vs. (14) IVY/Penn
(6) Tennessee vs. (11) ATLANTIC 10/Virginia Commonwealth
St. Louis
(7) Saint Mary’s vs. (10) Iowa
(2) Iowa State vs. (15) SOUTHERN/Furman
UMBC will play in the tournament for the first time since their memorable 16-over-1 upset highlighted a two-round stay in 2018. The Retrievers pulled away from Vermont to win their third America East title. … Cal Baptist will make its tournament debut after upsetting Utah Valley in the WAC final. The Lancers’ campus is in Riverside, Calif., less than 100 miles away from San Diego. It would be surprising if that isn’t their destination. …
Kennesaw State lost leading scorer (and preseason Conference USA player of the year) Simeon Cottle to an indictment in mid-January as part of a point-shaving scandal, went on to tie for sixth in a 12-team league and then won the conference tournament anyway. The Owls will make their second NCAA trip. … Virginia Commonwealth has a big fan somewhere --- perhaps Austin or Dallas or Norman or Auburn. A Rams victory over Dayton on Sunday saves some at-large team’s tournament hopes.
West Region
San Diego
(1) BIG 12/Arizona vs. (16) ATLANTIC SUN/Queens
(8) MOUNTAIN WEST/Utah State vs. (9) Georgia
Portland, Ore.
(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) MID-AMERICAN/Akron
(4) BIG EAST/St. John’s vs. (13) BIG WEST/Hawaii
Portland, Ore.
(3) WEST COAST/Gonzaga vs. (14) CONFERENCE USA/Kennesaw State
(6) North Carolina vs. (11) AMERICAN/South Florida
Greenville, S.C.
(7) Kentucky vs. (10) Miami (Ohio)
(2) Purdue vs. (15) OHIO VALLEY/Tennessee State
Utah State won the Mountain West on the way out the door, defeating San Diego State to ensure the conference is a one-bid league. The Aggies, Aztecs and three other Mountain West members are joining the reconstituted Pac-12 next season. … Akron has won three consecutive Mid-American titles after a gutsy, go-ahead 3 in the final 10 seconds on Saturday against Toledo. The Zips are technically a bid-snatcher, but one game enough to make life miserable for a No. 5 seed. …
Could see Gonzaga nudged down to the No. 4 line to accommodate one of the Big Ten teams (Illinois or Nebraska) that appears there in this projection. … Still don’t think anyone really knows what the committee will do with Miami (Ohio), but it bears repeating that no team with more than 28 victories has ever missed the tournament and no eligible team with less than three losses has been left out. The RedHawks are 31-1, and they should pop up somewhere between a No. 9 and No. 11 seed on Sunday night.
This story was originally published March 15, 2026 at 2:31 PM.