Picking the final football four

My projection of the four teams for the College Football Playoff and the four other New Year's bowls.

The top four teams, as ranked by the 12-person selection committee, will be placed in the Orange and Cotton bowls and meet on Dec. 31. The winners will meet on Jan. 11 in Glendale, Ariz., for the national title.

College Football Playoff

Orange: No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Clemson

Cotton: No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 3 LSU

Ohio State is in full “Florida State from last year” mode struggling on a weekly basis with inferior teams. Important to note, though, that FSU went 13-0 and got to the playoff. Only to be undressed by Oregon, but they got there.

It will be interesting to see if Urban Meyer can light a fire under this group and avoid FSU’s fate from 2014.

This is the first time I don’t have a second Big Ten team in the projection. The change there is Michigan looks like maybe it could bite either Michigan State or Ohio State. Also, Michigan State’s big nonconference win over Oregon gets worse by the minute.

Oregon (3-3) lost at home to Washington State. Is the playoff committee really going to put a one-loss Michigan State team in the playoff over an unbeaten Clemson, based on the strength of a win over Oregon?

And the way this year’s version of Florida State has played, it’s looking more and more like Clemson will pull into the barn with a 13-0 record.

New Year’s bowls

Sugar: Alabama (SEC) vs. TCU (Big 12)

Rose: Michigan State (Big Ten) vs. Utah (Pac-12)

Fiesta: Notre Dame (at large) vs. Houston (Group of 5)

Peach: Michigan (at large) vs. Florida (at large)

Season-long reminder: The Sugar and Rose bowls, which were playoff games last year, are “contract” bowls this year. The SEC and Big 12 are the only conferences that can play in the Sugar and the Rose is only open to Big Ten and Pac-12 teams. Those four teams will still be placed into those games based on the CFP selection committee rankings.

Also, the highest-rated champion from the “Group of 5” conferences is guaranteed one spot. The winner of the Memphis (5-0) and Houston (5-0) game on Nov. 14 is my choice with both Boise State (5-1) and Toledo (5-0) likely on the committee’s radar.

This story was originally published October 11, 2015 at 5:16 PM with the headline "Picking the final football four."