What the last four NCAA teams can do to win, lose
Villanova (33-5)
South regional champ, No. 2 seed
Road to Houston
Brooklyn
Defeated No. 15 UNC Asheville 86-56
Defeated No. 7 Iowa 87-68
Louisville, Ky.
Defeated No. 3 Miami 92-69
Defeated No. 1 Kansas 64-59
Postseason star to date
While Josh Hart is probably the most notable player on Villanova’s balanced roster and Kris Jenkins dropped 21 points on Miami (with the help of 5 of 6 shooting from 3-point range), senior guard Ryan Arcidiacono is averaging 16 points during the tournament and shooting 62.5 percent from the floor. His ability to run the Wildcats’ offense helped produce three blowouts before a taut regional final against Kansas.
Why the Wildcats can win it all
Excellence at both ends. Villanova is one of three teams nationally to rank in the top 10 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom.com. The others are Kansas (which lost to Villanova in the regional final) and Virginia (another Elite Eight casualty). The Wildcats offer a spellbinding, selfless offensive style, but are capable of grinding teams down at the other end as well.
How the Wildcats can fall short
Outside shooting. As efficient as Villanova is inside the 3-point line (56.8 percent on 2-point attempts), it does rely a great deal on its perimeter game. The Wildcats were just 4 of 32 from 3-point range in a 78-55 loss to Oklahoma on Dec. 7, and a similar showing against the Sooners would probably seal Villanova’s exit from the tournament.
Notable number
33: Villanova is the only team in the country to win 33 games in both of the last two seasons. The Wildcats went 33-3 last year, but lost to N.C. State as a No. 1 seed in the round of 32.
Oklahoma (29-7)
West regional champ, No. 2 seed
Road to Houston
Oklahoma City
Defeated No. 15 Cal State Bakersfield 82-68
Defeated No. 10 Virginia Commonwealth 85-81
Anaheim, Calif.
Defeated No. 3 Texas A&M 77-63
Defeated No. 1 Oregon 80-68
Postseason star to date
As if it could be anyone other than Buddy Hield, the two-time Big 12 player of the year who had 17 points and 10 rebounds in the regional semifinals against Texas A&M and then put up 37 points (on 13 of 20 shooting from the field) as the Sooners clobbered Oregon to seal a bid in Houston. Hield received perimeter help from Isaiah Cousins and Jordan Woodard, but he’s easily the most impressive scoring machine left in the tournament.
Why the Sooners can win it all
It has the best player. With considerable respect to North Carolina’s Brice Johnson and Villanova’s Josh Hart, Hield was a national player of the year candidate who is capable of multiple 30-point nights to close out the tournament. Hield will find a way to create opportunities on offense against anyone, and that only opens up chances for whoever else is on the floor with him at a given time.
How the Sooners can fall short
Lack of easy points. While Oklahoma is a perfectly decent foul-shooting team, it ranks in the bottom third nationally in free throw rate, a measure of how frequently a team gets to the line. The Sooners are a ruthless outside shooting bunch, but if 3-pointers aren’t falling, they might find themselves scrambling for alternate ways of scoring they often don’t depend upon.
Notable number
0: Oklahoma has never won an NCAA tournament, the only school in this Final Four never to have done so. This is the third time the Sooners have reached this point since the tournament expanded to 64 in 1985; they lost to Kansas in the 1988 final and fell to Indiana in the 2002 semifinals.
North Carolina (32-6)
East regional champ, No. 1 seed
Road to Houston
Raleigh
Defeated No. 16 Florida Gulf Coast 83-67
Defeated No. 9 Providence 85-66
Philadelphia
Defeated No. 5 Indiana 101-86
Defeated No. 6 Notre Dame 88-74
Postseason star to date
The MVP of the East regional, Brice Johnson is averaging 21 points and 9.8 rebounds over the last four games and turned out a pair of double-doubles in Philadelphia against Indiana and Notre Dame. The other remaining teams have interior options, but none quite as capable or as developed as UNC’s consensus first team All-America selection.
Why the Tar Heels can win it all
The most answers. North Carolina has more ways to sink opponents than anyone else in the field, from Brice Johnson’s interior play to the strong scoring capabilities of Joel Berry and Marcus Paige in the backcourt. Even with some limitations on the outside, the Tar Heels are the most dangerous offensive team in the Final Four and could overwhelm opponents at that end of the floor like they did in the East regional.
How the Tar Heels can fall short
They can’t stop a sizzling outside shooting team. Of course, this was the working theory heading into last weekend’s games against Indiana and Notre Dame, and look how they turned out. In any case, North Carolina doesn’t defend the 3-point shot at a great clip, and that seems to be the best way for an opponent to keep pace with the potent Tar Heels.
Notable number
83: North Carolina has scored at least 83 points in each of its first four NCAA tournament games, the first Final Four team to do so since Kentucky in 1996.
Syracuse (23-13)
Midwest regional champ, No. 10 seed
Road to Houston
St. Louis
Defeated No. 7 Dayton 70-51
Defeated No. 15 Middle Tennessee 75-50
Chicago
Defeated No. 11 Gonzaga 63-60
Defeated No. 1 Virginia 68-62
Postseason star to date
There’s a case to be made for Malachi Richardson, who scored 23 points in the Midwest regional final against Virginia. But the centerpiece for Syracuse is fifth-year senior Michael Gbinije, who is averaging 16 points, 4.3 rebounds and 4 assists during the tournament and was one of the most valuable players to his specific team throughout the season.
Why the Orange can win it all
It shortens the game. The Syracuse 2-3 zone forces opponents into possessions averaging 19.2 seconds, the most of any team in Division I according to KenPom.com. It’s not as if the Orange’s offense works all that quickly, either. Syracuse hasn’t played a game that got out of the mid-60s in total possessions since the regular season, and maybe the best way to keep a team like North Carolina from scoring is giving it fewer chances to do so.
How the Orange can fall short
If it goes cold from the outside. When Syracuse makes 3-pointers, it can hang with anybody. And when it doesn’t, things get substantially more difficult. The Orange is 19-5 when it makes at least a third of its 3-point attempts, and just 4-8 when it fails to reach that figure. If North Carolina has a night when its perimeter defense is particularly engaged, Syracuse’s stay in the tournament will likely come to an end.
Notable number
5: Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim has taken the Orange to the Final Four five times, but this is the first time he’s done so twice in the same decade. Boeheim’s previous Final Four appearances came in 1987, 1996, 2003 and 2013.
This story was originally published April 1, 2016 at 10:30 AM with the headline "What the last four NCAA teams can do to win, lose."