Duke has slim bowl chances. But none of them matter without a win over Miami.
A five-game losing streak has wiped away all but one of the hopes and goals Duke established prior to this football season.
The Blue Devils won’t have a winning record, overall or in ACC play. They lost both of their perennial games with in-state league rivals North Carolina and Wake Forest.
As Duke (4-7, 2-5 ACC) plays Miami in Saturday’s regular-season finale, the only thing left to achieve is a bowl game.
Though remote, there is a path the Blue Devils can take to a post-season game provided they beat the Hurricanes and there aren’t enough six-win teams around the country to fill the remaining bowl slots.
Duke’s superior Academic Progress Rate score puts it first in line if a five-win team is to go bowling.
Of course, the Blue Devils have to reach five wins first. They’ve tried unsuccessfully to do that since mid-October.
A struggling offense that’s produced only six touchdowns over the last 22 quarters has led to Duke’s losing streak. A Blue Devils defense that’s tackled poorly and given up large chunks of yardage in the running game the last three weeks has only made things worse.
Now the Blue Devils have one last chance to get things right. If they don’t, their hard work in the classroom combined with enough five-win teams losing this weekend won’t matter and their season will end.
“Let’s put all that to fruition in the Miami game,” Duke coach David Cutcliffe said. “That’s where everything is focused right now. We’re finally down to one game to maybe have a prize. We got one game now. We’re focused on if we win, we may go to a bowl.”
Starting with the 2012 season, Duke’s been to bowl games in six of the last seven years. The Blue Devils have won their last three bowl appearances, including wins at the Quick Lane and Independence bowls to cap the last two seasons.
So getting to a bowl, even though Duke is assured of its first losing season since going 4-8 in 2016, would be a nice accomplishment to keep some semblance of program momentum going.
The fact that classroom success would factor into it, Cutcliffe said, should be celebrated.
Back in 2016, Duke was in a similar position. The Blue Devils headed to Miami to close the regular season and the bowls were scrambling to find enough teams to fill out their game pairings.
But Duke lost 40-21 to the Hurricanes, ending the year at 4-8 and missing out on the bowl trip it would have gained with a win.
Players who were freshmen that day, like linebacker Koby Quansah, defensive end Tre Hornbuckle and safety Dylan Singleton, are seniors this year. They’ll be going through senior day festivities on Saturday as they play their final game at Wallace Wade Stadium.
They need a win to have a chance to play another game in a Duke uniform. Those three players will have a say in Duke’s ability to become the stingy defense it was earlier in the season, particularly against the run.
“We’ve always got to remember, finish, finish, finish.” Quansah said. “I think a big thing is having people running to the ball. I think that’s one thing we’ve lost sight of. Earlier in the season we have everybody running to the ball. Now we’re just depending upon one or two guys to make the tackle.”
That’s led to opponents racking up big yards after initial contact. Wake Forest had 334 rushing yards in last Saturday’s 39-27 win over the Blue Devils.
“We can’t afford not to play well against anybody we play,” Cutcliffe said. “So, it’s an emphasis. When you don’t tackle, people are going to run the ball. If you will look at the Wake game where first contact was and say that was the end of the play. There was maybe 140 to 145 yards of less run game. So that kind of explains it, right?”
On offense, Duke is next-to-last in the ACC in passing yards per game (181.5). It’s completion percentage (57.5) is 11th among the 14 ACC football teams.
Damond Phiyaw-Johnson’s two kick returns for touchdowns boosted Duke’s scoring at Wake Forest. But, even with those special teams contributions, the Blue Devils are No. 11 in the ACC in scoring per game at 25.1 points.
“The passing game here lately, we’ve had some difficult protection circumstances,” Cutcliffe said. “We haven’t hit balls. We had in the last game we played three opportunities for explosive pass plays, but we just didn’t get it done. You know I go back and I’ll look at practice gauges. I always look at myself, what I’m teaching, what we know and what we’re trying to accomplish. To be quite frank, I’ve got to do all of that better.”
The good thing for Duke is if it can find a way to fix all the things it has done wrong during the five-game losing streak, it only has to do it in one game to have a chance to keep its season going.
It’s a simple ask but, given how Duke has played the last five games, a tall one at the same time.