Duke basketball looks to regain its groove at Michigan State
Duke went from the top of the college basketball mountain to a punchline over 48 hours last week.
The day after being reaffirmed as the nation’s No.1 ranked team, the Blue Devils turned in their worst performance of the year and were upset 85-83 in overtime by Stephen F. Austin.
Three nights later, Duke played better, but was not great, in beating Winthrop 83-70 at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
The previous week, on consecutive nights at New York’s Madison Square Garden, the Blue Devils were strong in beating California, 87-52, and Georgetown, 81-73.
The question being bantered around the college basketball world is what happened from one week to the next?
Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski offered his feelings last Friday night.
“At the end of my career, whenever it is, you may be the one to ask me ‘Who was your toughest opponent,’” Krzyzewski said. “And I will tell you, right now, human nature. That’s a coach’s toughest opponent. To handle human nature.”
Krzyzewski’s point is the now No. 10 Blue Devils played inconsistently from one week to the next. This week, starting Tuesday night, Duke has two difficult road games.
First up is No. 11 Michigan State in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge at East Lansing, Mich. On Friday, the Blue Devils open ACC play at Virginia Tech, where they’ve lost in each of the past two seasons.
While Krzyzewski said human nature played a role in last week’s historic upset loss to Stephen F. Austin, a closer look through analytics offers a view of what happened on the court.
Using statistics compiled by Synergy Sports and KenPom.com, here’s a look at five categories of the games.
Shooting
As odd as this is to see, Duke’s shooting actually improved while the team’s overall play diminished over the two games against Stephen F. Austin and Winthrop.
Duke shot 50 percent overall, including 33 percent on 3-pointers, in the loss to SFA and 52.6 percent, including 58.3 percent (7 of 12) on 3-pointers, against Winthrop.
Duke’s season 3-point percentage is up to 35.2 percent, No. 93 in the country. Duke’s overall field goal percentage is 45.7 percent, good for 108th in the country.
Freshman Matthew Hurt provided a boost here, scoring 35 points over the two games last week while making 12 of 23 shots from the field.
Taking away layups and dunks, Hurt made five of nine 2-point attempts in the two games, showing an improvement in his mid-range game. He also made three of seven 3-pointers to give Duke a boost there.
In the two games the previous week in New York, Hurt was only 2 of 6 on shots inside the 3-point line.
Defense
This was the biggest area of concern for Duke last week.
After looking like the nation’s best defensive team over the season’s first six games, the Blue Devils gave up far too many shots in the lane, especially against SFA. The Lumberjacks scored 64 points in the paint, mostly on layups and dunks.
Duke entered last week with its opponents having made 40.6 percent of their shots. That season percentage is now 42.3 percent. SFA hit 48.6 percent, including 34 of 64 (53 percent) on its 2-point shots thanks to all those easy shots at the rim.
The Lumberjacks took 74 shots in the game. Only 13 were outside the lane.
Winthrop made 51.3 percent of its 2-pointers (23 of 45) against Duke.
Compare that to, say, California which made only 44.7 percent of its 2-point attempts against Duke.
The Blue Devils had only eight steals against SFA and nine against Winthrop. Only 9.5 percent of the Lumberjacks’ possessions ended with a steal, basically 1 of 10.
SFA committed turnovers on only 16.7 percent of its possessions. For Winthrop, it was 17.3. Prior to those two games, Duke’s opponents had turned the ball over 26.9 percent of the time. That season turnover rate is now down to 19.8.
Controlling the boards
Just like with defense, Duke’s rebounding prowess was impressive prior to last week only to suffer a drop in production.
Duke went from recording 13.5 more rebounds per game over its first six games to outrebounding Winthrop and SFA by only 4.5 per game.
Both Winthrop and SFA secured 28.2 percent of their missed shots via offensive rebounds. Duke had limited teams to a 21.1 percent offensive rebounding rate prior to last week.
The current national average is 28.2 so SFA and Winthrop hit that against Duke. But the Blue Devils had previously been far better than average.
Duke’s top rebounder, 6-10 Vernon Carey, maintained his solid pace with 21 rebounds in last week’s two games. He’s averaging 9.5 rebounds per game.
Freshman guard Cassius Stanley entered the week averaging 5.3 rebounds per game, second on the team, and grabbed nine combined against SFA and Winthrop. The left leg injury he suffered last Friday night, expected to keep him out for several weeks, will hurt Duke’s rebounding.
Senior reserve forward Javin DeLaurier averaged 5.0 rebounds per game over Duke’s first six games but had only five total in last week’s two games.
Freshman guard Wendell Moore entered last week second on the Blue Devils with 14 offensive rebounds in six games. He had just one over the two games against SFA and Winthrop.
Ball movement
The Blue Devils recorded assists on 77.8 percent of their field goals against SFA and 50 percent against Winthrop.
For the season, Duke’s assist rate is 52.1 percent, slightly better than the national average of 51.3 percent.
That high assist rate against SFA shows Duke had good ball movement while also revealing just how much poor free throw shooting (24 of 40) cost the Blue Devils that night. The Blue Devils were much better (16 of 22 on free throws) against Winthrop.
As for ball movement, this is all about Tre Jones. He assists on 35 percent of the field goals Duke makes while he is on the court. That puts him No. 41 nationally in that category.
Compare that to Matthew Hurt (6.4 percent) or Cassius Stanley (4.9).
Ball protection
This is a growing area of concern for Duke.
The Blue Devils’ turnover rate has jumped to 19.8 percent of their possessions for the season. That’s No. 186 nationally and right about on the national average of 19.7.
Duke struggled in this area against SFA and Winthrop, posting turnover percentages of 26.2 in losing to the Lumberjacks and 21.3 in beating the Eagles.
Against Cal and Georgetown, Duke’s percentages were 13.6 against the Bears but 25.9 against the Hoyas.
Jones, the normally steady point guard, has 13 turnovers in the last two games. That’s boosted his personal turnover rate to 21 percent. Last season, Jones finished at 14.7 percent.
Moore’s turnovers account for an even higher 31 percent of his possessions. Offensive fouls, which are turnovers, have been a problem for him as he’s averaging 4.1 overall fouls per 40 minutes.
No. 10 Duke at No. 11 Michigan State
ACC-Big Ten Challenge
When: 9:30 p.m., Tuesday
Where: Breslin Center, East Lansing, Mich.
Watch: ESPN
This story was originally published December 3, 2019 at 5:00 AM.