Duke’s shooting is better than expected, but its turnovers need attention
Having played 10 games, No. 4 Duke is in the longest stretch of days between games it will be experience this season.
The Blue Devils (9-1) last played on Dec. 6 when they won 77-63 at Virginia Tech in their first ACC game.
That game marked the end of a season-opening flurry when the Blue Devils played 10 games in 31 days with half of those games away from Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Since then, Duke’s players have gone through final exams and had some practices that don’t include much game planning. That means the Blue Devils got a chance to examine what they do well and what needs extra work for improvement.
Duke plays next on Thursday in a 7 p.m. home game with Wofford (7-4). After that, the players scatter for holiday break before reconvening in Durham to prepare for a Dec. 28 game with Brown.
Once that game is played, Duke won’t go more than four days between games the rest of the regular season.
So this month is when the Blue Devils can work on improving.
Using advanced statistics compiled by KenPom.com and Synergy Sports Technology, here’s a look at how Duke performed in five key areas so far.
Shooting
Duke experienced plenty of improvement in this area over the season’s first 10 games.
Remember last season when Duke made 30.8 percent of its 3-point shots to finish No. 327 nationally? Even with the line moved deeper this season, Duke has made 35 percent of its 3-pointers (No. 102 nationally).
Joey Baker (11 of 23, 47.8 percent), Matthew Hurt (15 of 34, 44.1) and Cassius Stanley (9 of 21, 42.9) have been Duke’s best 3-point shooters. Tre Jones, who made 26.2 percent of his 3-pointers last season, is up to 32.5 percent (13 of 40) this season.
As a team, Duke has made 37 percent of its jump shots. That includes shots in front and behind the 3-point line. That’s important because jump shots are 44.7 percent of Duke’s shot attempts in its half-court sets (meaning not fast breaks).
Compare that to last season, when Duke made only 31 percent of its jump shots and those shots accounted for 51.5 percent of its shots in half-court situations.
Controlling the boards
Duke continues to rebound well. The Blue Devils average 41.3 rebounds per game, compared to 32.0 for its opponents.
Looking at offensive rebounding, Duke has rebounded 37.1 percent of its missed shots. That’s No. 12 in the country. The national average is 28.1 percent.
Conversely, Duke’s opponents have only rebounded 23.7 percent of their missed shots.
Duke’s offensive rebounding fell off a tick in its two road wins prior to this break. The Blue Devils rebounded 25 percent of their misses both nights while beating Michigan State, 87-75, and Virginia Tech.
Vernon Carey, the 6-10 freshman center, leads Duke with 9.2 rebounds per game. That’s third in the ACC. Another freshman, 6-7 Cassius Stanley, averages 4.4 while reserves Jack White and Javin DeLaurier average 4.3 each.
Defense
The Blue Devils are No. 2 in the country in Ken Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency ratings, allowing 85.4 points per 100 possessions. Only Virginia, at 80.1, is better.
Duke’s opponents have made 43.2 percent of their shots overall, while making 29.3 percent of their 3-point shots. The Blue Devils are No. 53 nationally in 3-point defense. That’s not elite but it’s effective.
The Blue Devils have blocked 15.1 percent of their opponents’ shots (No. 18 nationally) and recorded steals on 12.5 percent of the opposition’s possessions (No. 21 nationally).
Carey has already proven to be an excellent shot blocker with 2.2 blocks per game (fourth in the ACC). Already renowned for his defense, Tre Jones is second in the ACC with 2.1 steals per game (21 total).
But Cassius Stanley has stood out with his defense, contributing 10 blocked shots and 10 steals. Junior reserve guard Jordan Goldwire is second on the team with 15 steals despite only playing 15.4 minutes per game.
Ball movement
Tre Jones leads the ACC with 7.1 assists per game, good for No. 7 nationally. That’s a good place to start when a coach wants his team to excel at passing.
The Blue Devils record assists on 53 percent of their field goals, which is No. 125 among teams nationwide. That only tells part of the story, though.
Oftentimes good passes lead to shots that result in a foul called. Vernon Carey, for example, has been fouled 8.9 times per 40 minutes played. No other player in the country has been fouled at that rate.
It’s no surprise Carey’s 76 free throw attempts are far and away the most for the Blue Devils. Jones is second with 47.
Other than Jones, Wendell Moore, Alex O’Connell and Goldwire have been effective passers.
Ball protection
Duke has shown vulnerability here, turning the ball over on 19 percent of its possessions. That’s right in the middle of the nation’s rankings in turnover rate at No. 144. The national average is 19.6.
As Duke’s primary ball-handler, Jones is in position to turn the ball over more than others. He leads Duke with 34 turnovers. But his turnover rate -- 21 percent of his possessions -- is higher than the 14.7 he finished with last season.
Moore, the freshman guard, is second on the team with 23 turnovers. His turnover rate is 27.7 percent, a sign he’s got plenty of room for improvement.
Senior forward White currently carries a 24.2 percent turnover rate, compared to the 16 percent he compiled last season. That ball protection last season is why White kept getting minutes even though his shooting was poor.
But the trust he’s built up could erode if the turnovers continue at this rate this season.
Wofford at Duke
When: 7 p.m., Thursday
Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham
Watch: ESPN2
This story was originally published December 17, 2019 at 5:30 AM.