What NCAA tournament seed does Duke deserve? Blue Devils still in a strong spot
After three defeats in its past four games, what once seemed certain for Duke now appears at least somewhat questionable: Are the Blue Devils in danger of starting the NCAA tournament somewhere other than Greensboro?
The short answer: Probably not. At least not yet.
“I think it would take almost a complete free-fall for Duke to not end up in Greensboro as basically a three seed or better,” said Patrick Stevens, who has earned acclaim for the accuracy of his NCAA tournament projections for the Washington Post. “If they lose out, yeah — I could see them tumbling.”
As recently as about a week and a half ago, Duke appeared to be all but a lock to start the NCAA tournament at the Greensboro Coliseum, which is about 55 miles west of Duke’s campus in Durham. After a victory against Notre Dame on Feb. 15, Duke was 22-3 (12-2 ACC) and had won 16 of its previous 18 games. The Blue Devils were in contention for a No. 1 seed.
Since then, though, they’ve lost three of their past four games. The defeats include a 22-point loss at N.C. State on Feb. 19 and a 12-point loss, in double-overtime, at Wake Forest. On Saturday, Duke suffered its second consecutive defeat — a 52-50 loss at Virginia, which held the Blue Devils to their lowest point total in three years.
Duke is still projected to be a No. 3 seed, opening the NCAA tournament in Greensboro, in ESPN.com’s projection Monday. (N.C. State was listed as one of the first four teams on the wrong side of the bubble.) The Blue Devils are ranked No. 12 in the AP poll and are No. 6 in the NET. The tournament’s top 16 seeds — Nos. 1 through 4 in each region — are placed into sub-regionals by geographic proximity to their campuses. The selection committee aims to keep the top seeds closest to home as possible for the first two rounds.
In addition to Greensboro, the other sub-regional sites are Albany, Cleveland, Omaha, Sacramento, Spokane, St. Louis and Tampa. For Duke to fall out of Greensboro, a couple of things would need to happen: The Blue Devils would have to keep losing, for one. Second, another team, or teams, would have to have a more compelling case to be placed in Greensboro.
“Given the other teams that we’re looking at there, I suppose that if Duke lost out, that it could get leap-frogged and say a Kentucky can go to Greensboro,” Stevens said. “I think that’s probably closer for it than Omaha, which is where I have them now.
“But I think it would probably take a lot.”
If Duke even limps into the NCAA tournament — instead of completely collapsing before it begins — the discussion probably becomes moot. The Blue Devils end the regular season with home games against N.C. State, on Monday night, and then against North Carolina on Saturday.
It helps Duke’s cause, too, Stevens said, that there isn’t necessarily another team with a clear case to bump Duke out of Greensboro. Maryland, which is projected to be a No. 2 seed, is likely to be sent to Greensboro, too. Virginia hasn’t had a strong enough season to contend for a top-16 seed. Louisville, meanwhile, appears certain to start the tournament in St. Louis.
“When you look at the teams on the four line, Oregon’s obviously not a team that’s going to bump (Duke) out of Greensboro,” Stevens said. “They’re going to be at one of those western sites. So there isn’t another team that’s all that proximate that would fit in there.”
The NCAA tournament is designed to give the strongest teams somewhat of a home-court advantage, especially during the first two rounds. Even so, staying close to home hasn’t always gone as expected for Duke. The Blue Devils’ most recent NCAA tournament appearance in Greensboro, in 2012, ended with a 75-70 defeat against 15th-seeded Lehigh.
In 2014, Duke began the tournament in Raleigh, at PNC Arena, and suffered a 78-71 defeat against Mercer, a No. 14 seed. The next season, Duke’s run to the 2015 national championship began with a pair of early-round victories in Charlotte. Now, despite the recent defeats, the Blue Devils still appear likely to start the NCAA tournament in North Carolina.
This story was originally published March 2, 2020 at 2:13 PM.
