What we know and don’t know about how the ACC football’s 10+1 model affects Duke
The coronavirus pandemic that halted the ACC basketball tournament last March and wiped out spring sports around the country finally hit the ACC football schedule.
Duke knows who it will face in league play but has yet to finalize its lone nonconference game. One thing that stays the same is Duke will play its three in-state league foes — North Carolina, Wake Forest and N.C. State — in the same season for the first time since 2013.
Other than that, everything is thrown out — including the ACC’s Atlantic and Coastal divisions — this season.
Here is what we know and don’t know about how it will affect Duke:
HOW MANY GAMES WILL BE AFFECTED?
Duke had three nonconference home games set up, with Middle Tennessee State, Elon and Charlotte.
The Blue Devils can only play one under the ACC’s new arrangement that allows one nonconference game. The aim is to play Charlotte or Elon, both in-state schools.
In addition, Duke’s new schedule doesn’t include games with Miami and Pittsburgh, two Coastal Division teams the Blue Devils normally play annually.
The temporary abolition of divisions for 2020 took care of that. And that could help Duke, which was originally scheduled to play both on the road.
Since Pitt entered the ACC for the 2013 season, the Blue Devils are 1-6 against the Panthers. Pitt has won the last five meetings.
Duke has played Miami annually every season since 2004 when the Hurricanes joined the league. The Blue Devils won 27-17 last season, giving them wins over Miami in consecutive years for the first time.
But that only improved Duke’s record against Miami to 3-12 in ACC play.
Duke will also lose one other nonconference game since Elon and Charlotte were originally on the schedule. The Blue Devils are hoping to play one or the other, but both would now be impossible.
WILL DUKE FACE PENALTIES FOR CANCELED GAMES?
That’s still to be determined because, under normal circumstances, a team that breaches a contract within 12 months of the scheduled game must pay damages that often total in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.
But, as we know, these are not normal circumstances. While there is no contract clause specifically in case of a pandemic, contracts include a standard boilerplate force majeure provision. That takes into account situations beyond reasonable control. The coronavirus pandemic would appear to qualify.
Duke and Middle Tennessee will likely work out a date for their 2020 game to be played in a future season, if that’s possible. Same Elon, if the Blue Devils work things out to play Charlotte this season.
WILL THE 2020 SEASON BE DELAYED?
Yes. Duke had been scheduled to open the season Sept. 5 against Middle Tennessee. Now the season can’t open prior to Sept. 7.
It’s still unclear if Duke will open the season against a nonconference foe or if that game will be later in the season.
WHAT WOULD IT TAKE FOR DUKE TO MAKE IT TO THE ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME?
The new arrangement calls for the top two teams in terms of winning percentage to play for the league championship. Based on recent history, that appears to make it more difficult for teams that normally play in the Coastal Division, like Duke, to make the title game in Charlotte.
Infamous for its parity, the Coastal has produced seven different champions in the last seven seasons.
The last time a Coastal Division team won the ACC title was 2010, when Virginia Tech beat Florida State.
Meanwhile, the last time a team not named Clemson or Florida State won the Atlantic was in 2008 (Boston College). Clemson has won the last five ACC championships, claiming two national championships along the way.
Notre Dame being eligible to win the ACC for the first time makes it even tougher for Duke to make the top two.
The Blue Devils now have four games (instead of the usual six) against traditional Coastal Division teams: reigning champion Virginia, rival North Carolina, perennial contender Virginia Tech and rebuilding Georgia Tech.
While avoiding Clemson, Duke plays five games against teams that normally call the Atlantic Division home: Wake Forest, N.C. State, Syracuse, Florida State and Boston College.
Duke’s 10th ACC game is at Notre Dame.